• #439
  "SpudCell synthetic cell not published in a top-tier journal by 2026-09-01" → ✅ correct. As of the deadline it remains a non-peer-reviewed 190-page paper (phys.org, STAT, Science/AAAS); never accepted by Nature/Science/Cell.
• #450
  "Iran names no new/acting Supreme Leader replacing Mojtaba Khamenei by 2026-09-01" → ✅ correct. No replacement announced; the regime maintained leadership continuity/ambiguity.
• #476
  "No preliminary injunction against OpenAI in Apple's trade-secret suit by 2026-09-01" → ✅ correct. PI hearing is set for Oct 1, 2026; OpenAI still moving to dismiss
  no PI/TRO issued.
• #543
  "No US water utility reports a public-health incident tied to the Iran-linked cyberattacks by 2026-09-01" → ❌ failed. Georgia's Clayton County Water Authority (~300,000 served) issued a boil-water advisory after cyber activity caused a pressure drop; the prediction's text counts a boil-water advisory as a qualifying incident, despite no confirmed contamination or illness.
• #571
  "Colombia quake toll reaches ≥400 by 2026-09-01" → ❌ failed. Confirmed toll was 331 as of Aug 25 and had plateaued; no evidence it reached 400 by the deadline.
• #584
  "Flores, Indonesia quake toll reaches ≥120 by 2026-09-01" → ❌ failed. Toll settled at 111, staying below the 120 threshold.

• #636 (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
  No individual is criminally charged or indicted over the leak of the classified Iran-war-dissent assessment (the Aug 14 SecDef Orders Book non-concurs). (status-quo)
  Based on: r/politics/WaPo Pentagon-leak story. The administration is loudly signaling prosecution (Hegseth/Parnell call it "a crime," FBI probe + new anti-leak task force), but identifying and charging a leaker from a widely-distributed classified Orders Book historically takes many months to years and often yields nothing.
• #637 (check 2026-09-08, ~7d)
  Nepal's 2026 flood/landslide confirmed death toll reaches at least 1,000, up from 939. (change)
  Based on: BBC/NPR
  toll at 939 with dozens of hydropower-tunnel workers still trapped and others missing; recovered bodies should push the confirmed toll past 1,000 within a week. A nearer, distinct milestone from pending #632 (>1,150 by 2026-09-30).

• #568
  US August 2026 nonfarm payrolls (BLS report due ~2026-09-04) print below +50,000 (initial headline), extending t… (check 2026-09-06, ~5d)
• #611
  The Hawk Fire near Reno, Nevada causes no confirmed civilian fatalities. (check 2026-09-08, ~7d)
• #637
  Nepal's 2026 monsoon flood/landslide disaster confirmed death toll reaches at least 1,000 by 2026-09-08, up from… (check 2026-09-08, ~7d)
• #607
  Canada's retaliatory 'dollar-for-dollar' tariffs on US goods take effect as scheduled on Sept 8, 2026
  no last-… (check 2026-09-09, ~8d)
• #443
  No Fulton County or Georgia state election official is criminally indicted as a result of the FBI's 2020 electio… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #445
  NATO will NOT sign a binding procurement contract for Saab GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft to replace its AWACS fleet b… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #474
  No fired U.S. Election Assistance Commission commissioner is reinstated by a court, and no replacement commissio… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #477
  No ICE, DHS, or other federal agent is criminally charged in the fatal shooting of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo (the H… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #491
  No U.S. state other than New York enacts a statewide moratorium halting new data-center construction by 2026-09-… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #492
  Lucid Group (LCID) does not file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy by 2026-09-15; the company keeps operating as a publi… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #498
  The Pentagon does not rescind, reverse, or get a court to block Hegseth's new annual testosterone-screening / TR… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #500
  The US 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazilian goods (effective 2026-07-22) takes effect and remains in force throug… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #503
  No criminal charge is filed against White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez over the Kalshi 'mention mar… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #505
  No U.S. state decertifies, bans, replaces, or formally announces the replacement of its electronic voting machin… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #508
  No CMS/HHS or DOJ official is held in contempt of court over the improper sharing of Medicaid data with ICE (lat… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #509
  New Jersey's assault-weapons and large-capacity-magazine ban is not repealed or rendered unenforceable statewide… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #516
  RFK Jr. remains HHS Secretary through 2026-09-15
  he is neither fired nor resigns despite US measles cases hitt… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #532
  The CDC's 2026 Cyclospora/cyclosporiasis outbreak (linked to Taylor Farms lettuce) exceeds 25,000 total reported… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #542
  No DOJ attorney or prosecutor involved in the David Hearn Reflecting Pool 'vandalism' case is fired, suspended, … (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #545
  Gianni Infantino remains FIFA president through 2026-09-15
  he does not resign or get removed despite the colla… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #546
  DR Congo's 2026 Ebola (Bundibugyo) outbreak exceeds 3,000 confirmed deaths by 2026-09-15, up from 1,556 as of ea… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #547
  Campi Flegrei produces no volcanic eruption, and Italian authorities order no mandatory evacuation of Pozzuoli o… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #548
  No DOJ, OCC, CFPB, Federal Reserve, or other federal agency announces a formal investigation or enforcement acti… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #554
  Confirmed deaths from the 2026 Taylor Farms cyclosporiasis outbreak stay below 10 by 2026-09-15, despite the cas… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #556
  The S&P 500 does not close 15% or more below its 2026-08-04 record-high close on any trading day through 2026-09… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #562
  Iran's Strait of Hormuz ban/toll plan stays symbolic through 2026-09-15: no enacted Iranian law barring US/Israe… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #574
  Karoline Leavitt's successor as White House press secretary is named from within the existing administration/com… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #579
  Brent crude does not settle above $100/barrel on any day through 2026-09-15, despite the widening US-Iran war. (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #580
  DR Congo's 2026 Ebola outbreak spreads to a 7th province by 2026-09-15, up from the sixth province confirmed 202… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #592
  AAA's US national average price for regular gasoline stays above $4.00/gallon on 2026-09-15, despite the usual p… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #595
  DR Congo's 2026 Ebola outbreak exceeds 7,500 confirmed cases by 2026-09-15, up from 4,945 as of 2026-08-17. (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #604
  The U.S. and Canada announce a finalized trade agreement (a signed deal/framework, not merely another deadline e… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #612
  No European ally (the UK, France, Germany, or the EU collectively) formally announces a NEW coordinated Iran san… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #625
  A Massachusetts jury finds Lindsay Clancy NOT criminally responsible (not guilty by reason of insanity) on the m… (check 2026-09-15, ~14d)
• #587
  No U.S. aircraft carrier (CVN) is deployed on station in the Western Pacific/East Asia at any point through 2026… (check 2026-09-16, ~15d)
• #531
  At its September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Warsh Fed holds the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% for a… (check 2026-09-18, ~17d)
• #591
  The US carries out no military strike on Omani territory by 2026-09-18, despite Trump's Aug 17 threat to 'bomb t… (check 2026-09-18, ~17d)
• #510
  Nebraska does not honor Cindy Burbank's withdrawal request: her name remains on the November 2026 U.S. Senate ge… (check 2026-09-19, ~18d)
• #635
  The confirmed death toll from the Aug 30, 2026 Filo Jet ferry sinking off northern Cyprus reaches at least 15 by… (check 2026-09-20, ~19d)
• #455
  California enacts a law making it a felony to seize uncertified ballots (Gov. Newsom signs it) by 2026-09-30. (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #463
  Marine Le Pen is not fitted with / does not begin wearing the court-ordered electronic ankle monitor at any poin… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #489
  No federal court issues a preliminary injunction or other order blocking Trump's July 13, 2026 reduction of Bear… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #490
  No lawyer referred by Judge Kathleen Williams in the voided IRS-settlement ruling (acting AG Todd Blanche, Stanl… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #494
  The U.S. Senate passes a defense authorization (NDAA) bill authorizing at least $1.1 trillion by 2026-09-30, des… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #499
  The U.S. House does not pass any measure conditioning, cutting, or blocking U.S. military aid to Israel by 2026-… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #504
  The People's Bank of China keeps its 1-year Loan Prime Rate unchanged at 3.0% through 2026-09-30 despite the rec… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #527
  The Trump administration's termination of the Medicare Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration (announced 202… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #528
  FIFA does not close or sign a binding private-equity investment into its new World Cup commercial-rights entity … (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #539
  Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI hedge fund) does not fully wind down, close, or return all out… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #540
  Kalshi keeps operating in New York through 2026-09-30 despite AG James's July 31 enforcement suit: it does not c… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #541
  No finalized US license authorizing Ukraine to domestically co-produce Patriot interceptor missiles takes effect… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #549
  Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) neither resigns from Congress nor withdraws from his 2026 reelection race by 2026-09-30, … (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #550
  No EU member-state authority announces a fine or formal enforcement action against any company for violating the… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #551
  Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, and Thomas Massie do not formally launch or register a named new nationa… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #559
  No federal court orders the DOJ to comply with New Mexico's document requests, and the DOJ turns over none of th… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #563
  No US federal law, executive order, or binding agency rule specifically restricting AI-designed viral-genome / s… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #569
  No phased Israeli/IDF military withdrawal from Gaza under Trump's Board of Peace 15-point plan begins by 2026-09… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #581
  A New York state judge does not dismiss Luigi Mangione's state first-degree-murder/terrorism case on double-jeop… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #583
  Global Stack (the data-center developer in the Aug 14 SF Chronicle expose) signs/closes no binding lease to buil… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #593
  The 30-year US Treasury yield closes above 5.44% (surpassing its 2007 global-financial-crisis-era peak, a fresh … (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #600
  China does not publicly agree to reduce or halt its Iranian crude oil imports in response to the US 'with us or … (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #617
  US 2026 confirmed measles cases exceed 3,200 nationally by 2026-09-30, up from 2,777 as of Aug 20. (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #618
  No negotiated Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace agreement halting active combat on the main front takes effect b… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #632
  Nepal's 2026 monsoon flood/landslide disaster confirmed death toll exceeds 1,150 by 2026-09-30, up from 734 with… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #633
  The US conducts at least one additional airstrike on Iranian territory by 2026-09-30, following the Aug 30 Larak… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #634
  No trilateral Trump-Putin-Zelensky summit convenes by 2026-09-30
  the leaders do not hold a documented three-wa… (check 2026-09-30, ~29d)
• #575
  No federal court issues a preliminary injunction or temporary restraining order blocking ICE/DHS from purchasing… (check 2026-10-01, ~30d)
• #577
  Iran is not formally admitted as a member/shareholder of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) by 2026-10-01, des… (check 2026-10-01, ~30d)
• #578
  No ICE, DHS, or GEO Group official is criminally charged over the three Delaney Hall (Newark) detainee deaths, a… (check 2026-10-01, ~30d)
• #565
  The US House passes the Senate's stopgap continuing resolution (funding the government through Dec 11) and no go… (check 2026-10-02, ~31d)
• #602
  Prince Harry files (or joins) an application for permission to appeal the July 7, 2026 High Court privacy ruling… (check 2026-10-02, ~31d)
• #616
  The NFL announces no disciplinary action (no suspension, fine, or other league sanction) against San Francisco 4… (check 2026-10-10, ~39d)
• #513
  Neither Andrew nor Tristan Tate is extradited from the United States to the United Kingdom by 2026-10-15; they r… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #552
  The full U.S. House does not vote to censure Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC) by 2026-10-15
  no censure resolution pas… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #555
  The PLO/Palestinian Authority pay no portion of the $656M Anti-Terrorism Act judgment by 2026-10-15 despite the … (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #560
  AIPAC and its United Democracy Project super PAC do NOT spend against Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate GENE… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #561
  No federal criminal charge or indictment is filed against Anthony Fauci as a result of the Senate Homeland Secur… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #564
  Despite the FCC repealing the 39% national broadcast-ownership cap on 2026-08-06, no U.S. broadcast station grou… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #570
  Credible reporting (Ukrainian/South Korean intelligence or Western officials) does NOT confirm North Korea's tot… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #573
  No federal court enjoins, stays, or vacates FinCEN's Aug 11, 2026 final rule ending Corporate Transparency Act b… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #585
  North Korea does not publicly accept or agree to South Korean President Lee Jae Myung's proposal for talks to fo… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #586
  The Kennedy Center board's Aug 13, 2026 renaming of the main building to 'The John F. Kennedy Center for the Per… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #599
  Fewer than 200 people total are deported to Liberia under the new US-Liberia third-country deportation deal by 2… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #605
  Interpol does not issue a Red Notice for Benjamin Netanyahu on Turkey's request, and Netanyahu is not arrested o… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #609
  Boston Symphony Orchestra musicians do not begin an actual strike (no work stoppage cancelling scheduled BSO con… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #619
  None of Snap, TikTok, or YouTube reaches a comparable multistate attorneys-general settlement over child-safety/… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #621
  ICE agent Christian Castro is not extradited or surrendered from Texas to Minnesota to face the Minneapolis assa… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #622
  The U.S. Senate takes no formal action against RFK Jr. over his alleged false confirmation testimony about the 2… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #629
  Front-month ICE Brent crude closes above $92/bbl on at least one trading day on or before 2026-10-15, up from ~$… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #636
  No individual is criminally charged or indicted over the leak of the classified Iran-war-dissent assessment (the… (check 2026-10-15, ~44d)
• #606
  The Department of War / DoD does not actually cut, suspend, or terminate any federal research funding to UC Berk… (check 2026-10-31, ~60d)
• #610
  In the September 6, 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election the AfD wins the most votes (a plurality) but does NOT lea… (check 2026-10-31, ~60d)
• #615
  Federal OSHA (or the U.S. Department of Labor) opens no rulemaking and brings no citation or enforcement action … (check 2026-10-31, ~60d)
• #631
  Trump's announced US-Venezuela oil agreement produces no signed joint-venture contract with released/binding ter… (check 2026-10-31, ~60d)
• #567
  Greenland Energy (the Trump-linked, Larry Swets-chaired Texas firm) does not begin actual oil drilling in Greenl… (check 2026-11-01, ~61d)
• #613
  No plaintiff state actually uses a DHS-generated 'verified citizen' list to screen mail-ballot eligibility in th… (check 2026-11-04, ~64d)
• #511
  Russia does not declare a formal public mobilization (a declared partial/general mobilization order like Septemb… (check 2026-11-15, ~75d)
• #598
  Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 general election … (check 2026-11-15, ~75d)
• #624
  No current or former Florida (DeSantis administration) official
  including AG James Uthmeier
  is criminally ch… (check 2026-11-15, ~75d)
• #597
  No individual Israeli soldier is criminally indicted or charged over the killing of Hind Rajab as a result of th… (check 2026-11-30, ~90d)
• #601
  The Islamic Republic of Iran's government does not collapse or fall from power by 2026-11-30, despite US claims … (check 2026-11-30, ~90d)
• #608
  Erin Patterson's murder convictions are NOT overturned and no retrial is ordered by the Victorian Court of Appea… (check 2026-11-30, ~90d)
• #630
  No federal court orders Trump's New York hush-money criminal case removed to federal jurisdiction by 2026-11-30;… (check 2026-11-30, ~90d)
• #588
  Lake Powell stays above the 3,490 ft minimum power pool through 2026-12-31, so Glen Canyon Dam keeps generating … (check 2026-12-31, ~121d)
• #589
  Mitch McConnell does not resign or vacate his U.S. Senate seat before 2026-12-31; he remains a sitting senator t… (check 2026-12-31, ~121d)

86 of 192 graded correct (44.8%) · 103 pending. (Do-nothing baseline: 70.3%; by shape
status-quo 51/73 = 69.9%, change 35/119 = 29.4%.) A forecaster that always bets nothing changes would score 70% on the same 192 predictions.

Each prediction is shaped when it is made; for 192 of the 192 graded here the shape was read from the claim's wording (a leading "no", a "does not", a "remains") because they predate the field.

• ❌ #584 The official confirmed death toll from the 2026-08-15 magnitude-7.7 earthquake off Flores, Indonesia reaches at least 120 by 2026-09-01, up from the 38-47 confirmed on the day of the quake. Fail = the official confirmed toll stays below 120 at the deadline.
  Final confirmed toll settled at 111 (per 2026-08-27 NTT update, Wikipedia), rising 47->53->68->~111 but staying below the 120 threshold at the 2026-09-01 deadline. (graded 2026-09-01)
• ❌ #571 Colombia's 2026-08-10 magnitude-7.4 earthquake official confirmed death toll reaches at least 400 by 2026-09-01.
  Confirmed toll was 331 as of 2026-08-25 (Wikipedia/El Tiempo), well short of the 400 threshold, and had plateaued. No evidence it reached 400 by the 2026-09-01 deadline. (graded 2026-09-01)
• ❌ #543 No US municipal or regional water utility reports a confirmed public-health incident (a contamination event, boil-water/unsafe-water advisory, or illness) attributable to the 2026 Iran-linked water-system cyberattacks by 2026-09-01. Fail = any such confirmed water-safety incident tied to the attacks before the deadline.
  Fail condition triggered: Georgia's Clayton County Water Authority (serving ~300,000) issued a boil-water advisory after the cyber activity caused a water-pressure drop (CBS/Washington Post/NPR, Aug 2026). The prediction's text counts a boil-water/unsafe-water advisory tied to the attacks as a qualifying incident, so it fails despite no confirmed contamination or illness. (graded 2026-09-01)
• ✅ #476 No preliminary injunction is granted against OpenAI in Apple's trade-secret suit (N.D. Cal., filed 2026-07-10) by 2026-09-01. Fail = a court grants Apple a PI or TRO restraining OpenAI's use of the disputed material before that date.
  No preliminary injunction granted. Apple filed its PI motion 2026-08-04; the injunction hearing is set for 2026-10-01 and OpenAI is still moving to dismiss (9to5Mac 2026-08-27). No PI/TRO issued by the 2026-09-01 deadline. (graded 2026-09-01)
• ✅ #450 Iran does not announce a new or acting Supreme Leader replacing the incapacitated Mojtaba Khamenei by 2026-09-01; the regime maintains leadership continuity/ambiguity despite his prolonged public absence. Fail = Iran formally names a new or acting Supreme Leader before the deadline.
  No new or acting Supreme Leader replacing Mojtaba Khamenei (named 2026-03-08) was announced by the deadline; no such reporting exists as of 2026-09-01. Regime maintained leadership continuity/ambiguity as predicted. (graded 2026-09-01)
• ✅ #439 The SpudCell synthetic-cell research is NOT published in a top-tier peer-reviewed journal (Nature, Science, or Cell) by 2026-09-01.
  As of 2026-09-01 the SpudCell manuscript remains a non-peer-reviewed 190-page paper; phys.org (2026-07), STAT and Science/AAAS all report it has not been published in any journal, let alone Nature/Science/Cell. Status-quo held. (graded 2026-09-01)
• ✅ #603 The U.S. Supreme Court does not order the White House ballroom construction halted; construction continues uninterrupted through 2026-10-15 following Chief Justice Roberts's Aug 21 stay of the injunction. Fail = SCOTUS reinstates the injunction or orders a halt before the deadline.
  On 2026-08-31 the full Supreme Court cleared the way for White House ballroom construction to continue (staying the district-court injunction while litigation proceeds), per WaPo/CNN/NYT. Coverage notes the ruling gives Trump the time to largely complete the project; a halt by the 2026-10-15 deadline is foreclosed with the East Wing already demolished. (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #537 Hamas does not begin verifiable disarmament
  no actual weapons handover or decommissioning under an international monitor begins
  by 2026-08-31, despite Trump's July 30 announcement that the Board of Peace reached a deal for its 'complete disarmament.' Fail = a documented weapons handover/decommissioning begins before the deadline.
  Board of Peace/UN envoy reported Hamas agreed in principle to hand over weapons, but no actual weapons handover or decommissioning under international monitors had begun by 2026-08-31
  Hamas still carrying weapons and doing tunnel work per the UN envoy (VINnews Aug 26). (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #495 No voting-machine manufacturer, election official, or other individual is criminally charged by the DOJ as a result of the 'declassified intelligence' Trump presents in his July 16, 2026 televised address reviving 2020 election-fraud claims, by 2026-08-31. Fail = any such criminal charge is filed on that basis.
  Trump gave the July 16 address and directed DNI/DOJ/FBI/CIA to investigate, but no voting-machine maker, election official, or individual was criminally charged on that basis by 2026-08-31. (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #473 The Navy's new policy removing sailors with permanent shaving (pseudofolliculitis barbae) conditions after 12 months of failed treatment is NOT rescinded, reversed, or blocked by a court by 2026-08-31. Fail = DoD/Navy rescinds or reverses the policy, or a court enjoins it, before the deadline.
  Navy shaving/PFB separation policy was not rescinded, reversed, or judicially blocked
  Navy doubled down with monthly accountability reports (Aug 3) and separations set to begin Sept 30. Only congressional letters urging reversal. (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #466 No national Olympic committee formally announces a boycott of or withdrawal from the LA 2028 Games over Russia's reinstatement by 2026-08-31
  including Ukraine's, which has so far only called the move 'premature.' Fail = any NOC announces a formal boycott/withdrawal before the deadline.
  No national Olympic committee announced a formal boycott of or withdrawal from LA 2028 over Russia's reinstatement; Ukraine only 'strongly disagreed.' Status quo held. (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #459 No formal F-35 sale to Turkey is completed by 2026-08-31: no signed Letter of Offer and Acceptance, no CAATSA restriction waiver enacted, and no F-35 delivered to Turkey, despite Trump's readiness signal at the Ankara NATO summit. Fail = any of those formal steps occurs before the deadline.
  No formal F-35 sale to Turkey completed by 2026-08-31; State Dept said Turkey still hadn't met conditions (S-400 issue), no CAATSA waiver, no delivery. Only Trump's July readiness signal. (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #453 Nigel Farage neither resigns as Reform UK leader nor is suspended from the House of Commons over the George Cottrell undeclared-benefits scandal by 2026-08-31. Fail = Farage resigns/is removed as leader, OR is suspended from the Commons, OR the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards concludes and upholds a breach resulting in a formal sanction before the deadline.
  Farage remained Reform UK leader; standards inquiry did not conclude with a sanction and he was not suspended. (He resigned only the Clacton seat July 7 as a by-election gambit, not the leadership.) (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #447 Liz Murrill remains Louisiana Attorney General and is not convicted by 2026-08-31: she does not resign or get removed, and the New Orleans grand-jury prosecution does not proceed to trial (the Louisiana Supreme Court stay holds or the case is dismissed/quashed). Fail = Murrill resigns/is removed, is convicted, or the stay is lifted and trial begins before the deadline.
  Louisiana Supreme Court stay (July 3) held; Murrill remained AG, no trial, no conviction, no resignation by the deadline. (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #446 No House or Senate committee opens a formal investigation, and neither the SEC nor DOJ announces a probe, into Trump's disclosed 2025 stock trades by 2026-08-31. Fail = any such formal committee investigation or SEC/DOJ inquiry is announced before the deadline.
  No House/Senate committee investigation and no SEC/DOJ probe was opened into Trump's 2025 stock trades; only minority Democrats (Warren et al.) demanded one and Bessent dodged. Status quo held. (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #444 The DOJ will NOT obtain any patient-identifying medical records of transgender minors from Lucile Packard Children's Hospital / Stanford by 2026-08-31
  the preliminary block holds and no identifying records are disclosed. Fail = DOJ obtains identifying records, or the injunction is vacated in a way that permits disclosure before the deadline.
  Preliminary injunction (Judge Pitts) held; DOJ obtained no identifying trans-minor records from Stanford
  part of a string of DOJ court losses (PA, MD, RI, NY). No disclosure by the deadline. (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #435 Ken Paxton remains the Republican U.S. Senate nominee in Texas through 2026-08-31
  he does not withdraw, suspend his campaign, or get replaced on the ballot despite the tabloid report. Fail = Paxton exits the race or is replaced as nominee before the deadline.
  Paxton remained the GOP Senate nominee through 2026-08-31, actively campaigning (Houston rally Aug 5, per Houston Public Media); no withdrawal or replacement. (graded 2026-08-31)
• ✅ #626 The U.S. Board on Geographic Names / USGS updates the official federal Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) to record 'Lake America' as the name for (the US side of) Lake Ontario by 2026-10-31. Fail = GNIS/USGS still lists it as 'Lake Ontario' with no 'Lake America' entry at the deadline.
  USGS updated GNIS to record 'Lake America' for Lake Ontario (US side) on ~2026-08-27, per Google Maps' official blog (blog.google/.../gnis-lake-ontario-lake-america-name-change) and NGA's Geographic Names Server update. Google Maps now shows 'Lake America' to US users, mirroring the GNIS change
  mirrors the Feb 2025 Gulf of America precedent. (graded 2026-08-30)
• ✅ #627 The US and Venezuela publicly announce a signed/finalized agreement granting the United States an ownership stake or long-term lease in Venezuelan oil fields by 2026-10-15. Fail = no signed/announced deal (talks only, or collapse) by the deadline.
  Trump publicly announced the US-Venezuela oil agreement on 2026-08-28, saying the US will take 'majority' control of 65+ billion barrels of proven reserves (17 fields), brokered by Rubio/Hegseth with interim president Delcy Rodríguez
  confirmed by CNBC, NBC, NPR, CNN, AP and Guardian. An announced ownership-stake deal, not talks/collapse, well before the 2026-10-15 deadline. (graded 2026-08-29)
• ✅ #566 No NATO member formally invokes or requests Article 4 consultations (or Article 5) in response to the Aug 8, 2026 unidentified drone explosion in Bulgaria near the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline or the strike on Lithuania's embassy in Kyiv, by 2026-08-29. Fail = any such formal invocation over these incidents before the deadline.
  Deadline reached with no Article 4/5 invocation over the Aug 8 Bulgaria pipeline drone or the Lithuania embassy strike. WebSearch (2026-08-29) confirms no ally has requested Article 4 consultations since Poland's Sept 2025 drone incursion; NATO again declined to trigger consultations over single unclaimed spillover incidents with no casualties on alliance soil. (graded 2026-08-29)
• ✅ #620 The confirmed death toll from the August 2026 Nepal-Tibet Himalayan glacial-outburst flood reaches at least 500 by 2026-09-20, up from roughly 350 confirmed dead as of Aug 27. Fail = confirmed toll stays below 500 at the deadline.
  Nepal police put the flood death toll at 547 (plus 5 in Tibet) as of 2026-08-28 per NPR/Al Jazeera
  crossed 500 well before the 2026-09-20 deadline. (graded 2026-08-28)
• ❌ #623 No federal court issues a new injunction or TRO blocking the USPS's finalized mail-in-ballot rule (39 CFR Part 111) before 2026-09-30; the restrictions stay in effect despite the multistate suits. Fail = any court enjoins/blocks the finalized rule before the deadline.
  Judge Indira Talwani (D. Mass.) granted a 14-day TRO on 2026-08-27 staying USPS from implementing its finalized 'Ballot Mail for Federal Elections' rule (39 CFR Part 111) in the League of Women Voters and California cases, finding USPS had 'feigned compliance'
  a court blocked the finalized rule well before the 2026-09-30 deadline (CNN, Axios, Bloomberg Law). (graded 2026-08-28)
• ❌ #572 No federal appeals court stays or reverses the nationwide injunction barring the USPS from enforcing Trump's mail-in-voting restrictions before 2026-10-15; the block stays in force.
  Block did not stay in force. Following SCOTUS's Aug 24 standing-grounds stay, a federal district judge lifted the final injunction on 2026-08-26 (CNBC), and USPS said mail-in-voting restrictions are now in effect as of 2026-08-27 (Reuters). Restrictions are live for the midterms; challengers are filing a fresh suit against the finalized rule. (graded 2026-08-27)
• ❌ #590 The Ulchi Freedom Shield 2026 US–South Korea combined exercise (begun 2026-08-17, scheduled through ~Aug 27) proceeds to its scheduled conclusion without being cancelled or halted mid-exercise, despite Trump's Aug 17 order to 'substantially reduce' the drills. Fail = the exercise is cancelled or cut short before its scheduled end.
  UFS 2026 was cut short/'substantially reduced' after ~5 days following Trump's order; field maneuvers cancelled or converted to simulations rather than running through the scheduled Aug 27 end (Stars and Stripes 2026-08-18; Task & Purpose). The exercise did not proceed to its scheduled conclusion. (graded 2026-08-27)
• ✅ #614 Darline Graham (Trump-endorsed, appointed incumbent) wins the August 25, 2026 South Carolina Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff over Rep. Ralph Norman. Fail = Norman wins the runoff.
  Darline Graham won the Aug 25, 2026 SC GOP Senate primary runoff; NYT (2026-08-26): 'Trump Slingshots Darline Graham to Victory,' lifting her to the Republican nomination. (graded 2026-08-26)
• ✅ #594 No jury returns a verdict finding Meta liable in the four-state child-safety/social-media-addiction trial by 2026-11-30. Fail = a jury liability verdict against Meta before the deadline.
  Meta settled the multistate child-safety case for up to $17.1B with 47 states (NYT/NPR 2026-08-26), ending the trial without a jury liability verdict; a jury verdict is now precluded. (graded 2026-08-26)
• ✅ #496 No criminal charges are filed against Elon Musk over his million Wisconsin voter checks by 2026-09-15, despite the Wisconsin Elections Commission's probable-cause referral to the Brown County DA. Fail = any criminal charge filed against Musk over the giveaway before the deadline.
  Wisconsin state prosecutor declined to charge Musk; AP (2026-08-25): 'Elon Musk won't face election bribery charges in Wisconsin, state prosecutor says.' No charges filed. (graded 2026-08-26)
• ✅ #520 Iran carries out no direct military strike on Ukrainian territory, forces, or assets in retaliation for the July 25 Caspian Sea vessel attack by 2026-08-26; its response stays diplomatic/legal (condemnation, summoning the envoy, self-defense rhetoric). Fail = any direct Iranian military strike attributable to this incident before the deadline.
  No direct Iranian military strike on Ukraine occurred by the 2026-08-26 deadline. Iran only 'considered' striking three Ukrainian locations (per an adviser to Mojtaba Khamenei, Haaretz 2026-08-04) and kept its response to condemnation/summoning the envoy; analysts noted Tehran has 'very limited ability to project military power against Ukraine.' (graded 2026-08-26)
• ✅ #557 No Strait of Hormuz agreement/deal between Iran and the US (or its Qatari/Omani mediators) is publicly announced or signed by 2026-08-25, despite Bessent's optimism. Fail = any such Hormuz deal is announced/signed before the deadline.
  No Strait of Hormuz deal announced or signed by the deadline; instead the US declared a 'global economic war' on Iran on 2026-08-24 and Iran vowed a 'seismic' response (BBC/NPR/Al Jazeera). (graded 2026-08-25)
• ✅ #553 No direct US-Iran negotiation is publicly confirmed by both governments by 2026-08-25: despite Trump's Aug 3 claim that talks begin Monday, no in-person bilateral US-Iran negotiating session occurs and Iran's foreign ministry/leadership does not acknowledge direct talks with Washington (the separate Iran-Oman Hormuz track does not count). Fail = both sides confirm a direct bilateral negotiation, or Iran officially acknowledges direct US talks, before the deadline.
  No confirmed direct bilateral negotiation as of 2026-08-25: Iran repeatedly denied direct talks (only intermediary messages via Oman/Qatar/Pakistan), and the US instead announced an 'economic D-Day' severing ties (WaPo/CNBC/ABC/BBC). (graded 2026-08-25)
• ✅ #517 No federal court issues a nationwide injunction or TRO blocking Trump's July 24, 2026 'forced-labour' Section 301 tariff wave (Switzerland, Australia, EU and dozens of partners) by 2026-08-25; the new tariffs remain in force. Fail = any court enjoins/stays the July 24 tariffs before the deadline.
  July 24 Section 301 forced-labor tariffs remained in force at the deadline; 25 states (Aug 3) and small-business plaintiffs sued at the Court of International Trade but no injunction/TRO was granted (tradelawcounsel/USTR). (graded 2026-08-25)
• ✅ #488 No ICE/DHS agent or officer is criminally charged in the fatal Biddeford, Maine shooting of the 26-year-old Colombian motorist (not the warrant's target) by 2026-08-25. Fail = any criminal charge filed against the agent before the deadline.
  No criminal charge filed against the ICE officer by the 2026-08-25 deadline; FBI, DHS-OIG and Maine AG investigation still ongoing and the agent remains on leave (PBS/WaPo/NBC). (graded 2026-08-25)
• ❌ #522 Trump's mail-in voting Executive Order 14248 (citizenship-list + mail-ballot receipt-by-Election-Day provisions) remains blocked/unenforced in the 23 plaintiff states through 2026-09-15
  no court lets it take effect and the administration does not begin enforcing it there. Fail = SCOTUS or any court stays/reverses the injunction, or the administration begins enforcing the order in the plaintiff states, before the deadline.
  SCOTUS 6-3 stayed the lower-court injunction on 2026-08-24 (blue states 'sued too early'), clearing DHS to build 'verified citizen' voter lists and lifting the block in the plaintiff states. The fail condition
  'SCOTUS stays/reverses the injunction'
  was met (per The Hill/CBS/NPR). USPS piece remains separately blocked. (graded 2026-08-24)
• ❌ #596 The US does not impose a 50% tariff on Canadian goods at any point through 2026-09-15; the paused hike either becomes a finalized deal or is extended/renegotiated again rather than taking effect. Fail = a 50% US tariff on Canadian goods takes effect before the deadline.
  US imposed 50% tariffs on ~$20B of Canadian goods at 04:00 GMT 2026-08-22 after trade talks collapsed; Canada is matching dollar-for-dollar (NPR, Guardian, NBC). The 50% level took effect before the deadline. (graded 2026-08-22)
• ❌ #534 Saudi Arabia suffers no sustained (>1 week) war-driven reduction to its crude oil production or exports through 2026-08-20; Saudi barrels keep flowing despite its entry into the US-Iran war. Fail = Saudi announces or a credible report documents a sustained (>1 week) war-linked cut/halt to Saudi crude output or exports before the deadline.
  Failed. Saudi Arabia cut crude output ~20% (~2M bpd, to ~8M bpd) after shutting in the Safaniya and Zuluf offshore fields amid the Hormuz shutdown, and its East-West pipeline was hit by Iran (capacity -700k bpd). OilPrice ('Hormuz Crisis Forces Massive Saudi Oil Shut-In') and Bloomberg/Reuters document a sustained war-driven reduction well beyond one week, persisting as the war continued through the 2026-08-20 deadline. Saudi barrels did NOT keep flowing. (graded 2026-08-20)
• ✅ #501 Ukraine's parliament confirms a new defense minister (not Mykhailo Fedorov) by 2026-08-31; Fedorov is not reinstated to the post despite the protests. Fail = Fedorov reinstated as defense minister, OR the post remains vacant with no confirmed replacement by the deadline.
  Ukraine's Rada confirmed Yevhen Khmara (ex-SBU special forces, Zelensky's acting pick since July 16) as defense minister on 2026-08-19 by 312 votes
  a new non-Fedorov minister, not a reinstatement or prolonged vacancy. Per Kyiv Independent/Euronews. (graded 2026-08-19)
• ✅ #530 Saudi Arabia's entry into the US-Iran war stays limited to strikes on Iran-backed militia targets in Iraq/proxies; it conducts NO direct military strike on Iranian territory by 2026-08-19. Fail = any Saudi airstrike/missile strike on Iran proper before the deadline.
  Deadline 2026-08-19 reached with no Saudi missile/air strike on Iranian territory; Saudi action stayed limited to Iran-backed militia targets in Iraq. Consistent with the war winding down (2026-08-19 brief: Pentagon weighing smaller Gulf presence 'once Iran war ends'). Riyadh kept its response defensive/oil-infrastructure-driven, no direct strike on Iran proper. (graded 2026-08-19)
• ✅ #467 No formal US executive order or regulation actually halting all (or substantially all) US-Spain trade takes effect by 2026-08-19; bilateral goods trade and customs flows continue despite Trump's NATO-summit order. Fail = a formal order/regulation embargoing US-Spain trade takes effect, or a documented de facto trade stoppage occurs before the deadline.
  Deadline 2026-08-19 reached with no US executive order or regulation halting US-Spain trade in effect; no de facto stoppage. Trump's Ankara-summit trade threat against Spain was never enacted (second such verbal instruction to Bessent with nothing implemented; EU-competence and TACO pattern held). Not in 2026-08-19 brief. (graded 2026-08-19)
• ✅ #544 The EU's Aug 4, 2026 emergency interior-ministers videoconference on the Ceuta crisis produces no binding EU-wide mandatory migrant relocation/redistribution mechanism; it ends with non-binding statements, coordination, or funding/border-support pledges at most, through 2026-08-18. Fail = the EU agrees a binding mandatory relocation/redistribution scheme for the Ceuta arrivals before the deadline.
  The Aug 4, 2026 emergency EU interior-ministers videoconference produced no binding mandatory relocation scheme (Euronews/CSMonitor/AlJazeera coverage shows calls and crisis-response talks only). Consistent with the EU's decade-long gridlock on compulsory redistribution; no binding mechanism agreed by the 08-18 deadline. (graded 2026-08-18)
• ✅ #507 Trump does not impose any new tariff, surcharge, or 'pollution cost' on Canadian goods justified by wildfire smoke by 2026-08-18; the wildfire-smoke tariff threat produces no enacted trade measure. Fail = any such measure takes effect before the deadline.
  No wildfire-smoke-justified tariff on Canada was ever enacted. Trump's 'add pollution cost to tariffs' was July 2026 rhetoric (CNBC/Fox/AlJazeera 2026-07-17); at the 08-18 deadline the only Canada tariff action was a general trade-war escalation ('on the brink of new tariffs,' CTV), not a smoke surcharge. No such measure took effect. (graded 2026-08-18)
• ✅ #582 Tropical Storm Lala does NOT make landfall on any Hawaiian island as a hurricane (NHC-classified, sustained winds >=74 mph at landfall); it weakens to or passes as a tropical storm, so Hawaii records no first hurricane landfall since Iniki (1992). Fail = NHC records Lala making a hurricane-strength landfall on a Hawaiian island before the deadline.
  Lala weakened to a tropical storm and skirted Hawaii without making landfall (NPR, 2026-08-16), producing hurricane-force gusts but no NHC hurricane-strength landfall. No first HI hurricane landfall since Iniki (1992). (graded 2026-08-16)
• ✅ #576 The confirmed death toll from the Aug 12, 2026 Lake Kariba (Zimbabwe) ferry capsize reaches at least 60 by 2026-09-01, up from the 44 confirmed on the day of the disaster. Fail = the confirmed toll stays below 60 through the deadline.
  Lake Kariba ferry toll reached 68 (22 more bodies recovered, 18 children among dead) per Guardian 2026-08-15, exceeding the 60 threshold two weeks before the 2026-09-01 deadline. (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #514 The US-Iran war continues with no formal ceasefire or cessation of US strikes on Iran taking effect by 2026-08-15; hostilities now in their second week persist past that date. Fail = a ceasefire/truce halting US-Iran strikes takes effect before the deadline.
  The US-Iran war continued past mid-August with no ceasefire; USS Lincoln remains long-deployed and USS George Washington is deploying to relieve it (CNBC/NYT Aug 13-14, 'Iran war drags on'). (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #478 Mexico does not recall its ambassador to the US or expel any US diplomat over the ICE-related deaths through 2026-08-15; it holds to its legal/institutional response (US-prosecutor complaints, cease-and-desist letters, IACHR/UN filings).
  Mexico did not recall its ambassador to the US or expel any US diplomat over the ICE deaths; Sheinbaum held to the legal/institutional response (consistent with #437). No diplomatic rupture reported. (graded 2026-08-15)
• ❌ #471 GPT-5.6 Sol's claimed ARC-AGI-3 leaderboard SOTA of 7.8% is NOT surpassed by any publicly verified model on arcprize.org by 2026-08-15; it remains the top-scoring model on that benchmark through the deadline.
  Claude Opus 5 scored 30.2% on ARC-AGI-3, nearly 4x GPT-5.6 Sol's 7.8% record, taking the leaderboard top spot as of Aug 13, 2026 (arcprize.org, The Decoder)
  surpassing the mark before the deadline. (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #469 Neither Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian nor Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is removed from office or resigns by 2026-08-15, despite the hardliner physical attack and open regime divisions over the US talks. Fail = either leaves office before the deadline.
  Both President Pezeshkian and FM Araghchi remain in office as of August 2026; neither resigned nor was removed despite the hardliner attack and factional tension. (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #458 The US drawdown from Estonia proves rotational, not a permanent exit: a new US rotational contingent arrives or is formally confirmed for Estonia, and the US does not reduce its Estonia presence to zero, through 2026-08-15. Fail = US presence hits zero with no confirmed replacement rotation, or Washington formally announces a permanent end to US ground presence in Estonia before the deadline.
  US presence in Estonia did not hit zero (fewer than ~100 remained/rotating) and no formal permanent-end was announced; framed as a rotation gap with a new summer rotation expected (Euromaidan Press, Pravda). Neither fail condition triggered. (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #451 Albanian PM Edi Rama does not resign or lose office over the 'Flamingo Revolution' protests by 2026-08-15; he remains prime minister despite the month-long nightly demonstrations demanding his resignation. Fail = Rama resigns, is removed, or his government falls before the deadline.
  Rama remains PM through the deadline; Flamingo Revolution protests continue demanding his resignation but he has refused to step down over the Kushner/Trump-linked Zvernec development. (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #449 The DOJ does not release the disputed Epstein files to the plaintiff and is not held in contempt of court by 2026-08-15, continuing to resist the judge's disclosure order via appeal/redaction fights. Fail = the files are released OR the DOJ (or an official) is held in contempt before the deadline.
  DOJ neither released the disputed Epstein files nor was held in contempt; Judge Sullivan on Aug 13 only WARNED that contempt is an available remedy if defiance continues (NBC News, TechTimes). (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #448 No criminal charges are filed against Dr. Aryan Toosi (the Arizona ER physician who pronounced toddler Vincent Fiordilino dead hours before he was found alive in the morgue) by 2026-08-15. Fail = any criminal charge filed against Toosi before the deadline.
  Police confirmed Dr. Toosi faces no criminal charges; his exposure is civil-malpractice/medical-board only (IBTimes UK, azfamily). Prosecutors reviewed only possible parental charges. (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #441 No third major Western government beyond France and Spain will issue a formal directive barring Palantir from public-sector contracts by 2026-08-15, despite the 'Europe fights back' contagion narrative. Fail = Germany, Italy, the UK, the Netherlands, or another G7/EU member issues such a formal ban/directive before the deadline.
  No third Western government issued a formal directive barring Palantir from public-sector contracts; per Sovereign Magazine (Aug 2026), Germany/Netherlands/UK actions remain informal policies or recommendations, not formal contract bans. (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #440 Mitch McConnell neither resigns his Senate seat nor dies before 2026-08-15, despite the June 14 CPR/health incident revealed today. Fail = McConnell resigns, is replaced, or dies before the deadline.
  McConnell remains a sitting senator through the deadline; absent since a June 14 fall (NOTUS: absence grinding Senate business to a halt) but neither resigned, replaced, nor died. (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #437 Mexico imposes no new retaliatory tariffs on US goods through 2026-08-15, holding to its de-escalation strategy even as Canada retaliates over the USMCA non-renewal.
  No new Mexican retaliatory tariffs on US goods reported through 2026-08-15; Sheinbaum held the de-escalation line. (US imposed its own tariffs on Mexican goods effective Aug 19, but that is US action, not Mexican retaliation.) (graded 2026-08-15)
• ✅ #462 Nigel Farage wins the Clacton by-election he triggered by resigning, AND does so with a vote share above his 46.2% from the 2024 general election. Fail = he loses the seat, or wins with a vote share at or below 46.2%.
  Farage held Clacton in the 2026-08-13 by-election with 63.3% (majority 12,784 over Count Binface's 26.9%), turnout 44.4%
  well above his 46.2% share from the 2024 general election, so both conditions (wins + share rises) met. Per Al Jazeera / UK Parliament. (graded 2026-08-14)
• ❌ #533 Brent crude settles above $100/barrel on at least one day by 2026-08-14. Fail = Brent never settles above $100 through the deadline.
  Brent never settled above $100 through the 2026-08-14 deadline. Per Fortune/Forbes, Brent traded ~$88.98-91.60 on 2026-08-12 and stayed in the $87-92 range through early-mid August; the widening US-Iran war added a risk premium but not enough to reclaim $100 (52-wk high was $120.88 on 2026-04-30). EIA Q3 average forecast ~$85. (graded 2026-08-14)
• ✅ #535 Poland does NOT formally invoke or request NATO Article 4 consultations over the July 30, 2026 Russian Kh-101 missile strike that cratered a field in Lublin province, by 2026-08-13. Fail = Poland formally invokes/requests Article 4 (or Article 5) over this specific incident by the deadline.
  Deadline reached with no invocation. Poland never formally requested NATO Article 4 (or 5) over the July 30 Kh-101 strike in Lublin; PM Tusk named Moscow but pointedly declined, saying there was no indication Poland was the intended target (euobserver, Kyiv Independent, Aug 2026). (graded 2026-08-13)
• ❌ #456 US headline CPI prints at 4.2% year-over-year or higher in at least one monthly report released by 2026-08-15, exceeding Kalshi traders' sub-30% odds that 2026 inflation peaks above 4.2%.
  US CPI peaked at exactly 4.2% in May 2026 (released 2026-06-10, before this prediction was made), then eased: 3.5% in June and 3.4% in July (released 2026-08-12) per CNBC/NPR. No report released by the deadline exceeded the known 4.2% May peak; the 'inflation runs hotter than the market's peaked-in-May view' thesis was wrong and the last report before the 08-15 deadline is out. (graded 2026-08-12)
• ❌ #433 Michael Burry's new Caterpillar short is underwater: CAT closes at or above its 2026-06-30 level of $1,063.61 on 2026-08-11. Fail = CAT closes below $1,063.61 (short in profit).
  CAT closed ~$837-843 on 2026-08-11 (stockanalysis.com $843.37 close), far below the $1,063.61 threshold
  down ~21% from the 2026-06-30 level. Burry's Caterpillar short was firmly in profit at the deadline; the fade failed. (graded 2026-08-12)
• ❌ #518 The confirmed death toll from the July 19 Guyana ferry (MV Barima) sinking reaches at least 90 by 2026-08-10. Fail = confirmed toll stays below 90 at the deadline.
  MV Barima confirmed death toll finalized at 77 (76 rescued, ~26 missing) per Wikipedia/Al Jazeera/ABC; recovery operations concluded well below the 90 threshold. Bodies never fully recovered stalled the confirmed count, exactly the risk flagged. (graded 2026-08-09)
• ✅ #519 Neither the city of Bordeaux nor the city of Madrid (the municipality/urban core itself) is placed under a mandatory evacuation order due to the France/Spain wildfires by 2026-08-09. Fail = a mandatory evacuation of either city proper is ordered before the deadline.
  Deadline reached with neither city core evacuated. The France/Spain wildfire evacuations (250k-300k) hit the Gironde/Landes belt and Spanish towns like San Martin de Valdeiglesias between Madrid and Avila; residents were directed TOWARD Bordeaux as a shelter, and Madrid city proper was never placed under a mandatory evacuation order (CNN/NBC, late July 2026). (graded 2026-08-09)
• ✅ #483 The U.S. Senate confirms Todd Blanche as Attorney General by 2026-08-15. Fail = not confirmed (or nomination withdrawn/rejected) by the deadline.
  Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as AG by a 50-49 vote early Sat 2026-08-08 (NPR/NYT/BBC), 7 days before the 2026-08-15 deadline. (graded 2026-08-08)
• ❌ #526 The U.S. Senate passes the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act with at least 67 votes (a veto-proof margin) by 2026-08-08. Fail = does not pass the Senate by the deadline, or passes with fewer than 67 votes.
  The Senate only took a procedural/cloture vote (86-12, July 29) to advance the bill; final Senate passage and House action were deferred until after the August recess. No final-passage vote occurred by the 2026-08-08 deadline, so the >=67-vote passage bet fails (the votes clearly exist, but passage did not happen in time). (graded 2026-08-07)
• ❌ #515 Brent crude settles above $90/barrel on Friday 2026-08-07
  the war/Red Sea-blockade oil premium persists rather than fully reverting. Fail = Brent settles at or below $90 on 2026-08-07.
  Brent traded ~$82-86/bbl on 2026-08-07 (Fortune $86.04 intraday, TradingEconomics ~$82.15), well below $90
  the war/blockade oil premium reverted rather than persisting. Settle far below the $90 threshold. (graded 2026-08-07)
• ✅ #558 The FDA grants approval (full and/or accelerated) to Moderna's mRNA seasonal flu vaccine mFLUSIVA (mRNA-1010) by 2026-08-31, after its Aug 5 PDUFA date and the June 18 9-0 VRBPAC vote. Fail = no FDA approval (complete response letter, delay, or rejection) by 2026-08-31.
  FDA approved Moderna's mFLUSIVA on 2026-08-05 (standard approval for ages 50-64, accelerated for 65+)
  the first mRNA flu vaccine, well before the 2026-08-31 deadline. Per STAT/NBC/CBS/Healthcare Dive. (graded 2026-08-06)
• ✅ #525 TSMC's Kumamoto (JASM) fabs resume wafer production within one week of the July 28 quake (by 2026-08-05) with no company-reported structural damage or extended (multi-week) halt; no chip-supply shortage is attributed to the quake. Fail = TSMC reports material damage or a halt extending past 2026-08-05, or a quake-linked chip-supply disruption is reported.
  TSMC announced Aug 4 2026 that JASM Kumamoto was fully restored/resumed production after the July 28 quake, with structural integrity confirmed (no company-reported structural damage), per DataCenterDynamics/Taipei Times. Within the one-week/by-2026-08-05 window. (graded 2026-08-05)
• ✅ #479 Kansas voters reject the August 4, 2026 constitutional amendment to elect (rather than appoint) state Supreme Court justices; the 'No' side wins a majority.
  Kansas voters rejected the Aug 4 2026 amendment to elect Supreme Court justices by a wide ~62% No margin (WaPo/Kansas Reflector/KCTV live results). The 'No' side won as predicted. (graded 2026-08-05)
• ❌ #457 Bitcoin closes below $57,000 on at least one day by 2026-08-06, printing a new low beneath last week's ~$58k trough. Fail = BTC never closes below $57,000 through the deadline.
  Bitcoin never closed below $57,000; the ~$58k trough held and BTC traded ~$64,000 on Aug 5 2026 (Fortune/Yahoo), well above the target with only the 8/6 deadline day remaining. Short-side bet did not hit. (graded 2026-08-05)
• ❌ #521 Haley Stevens wins the Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary on 2026-08-04, defeating Abdul El-Sayed. Fail = El-Sayed (or any other candidate) wins the nomination.
  Abdul El-Sayed won the Michigan Democratic Senate primary (Aug 4, 2026), narrowly defeating Rep. Haley Stevens, per NPR/NYT/NBC coverage in the 2026-08-05 brief. The predicted Stevens win did not occur. (graded 2026-08-05)
• ✅ #485 xAI does not publish a public advisory or postmortem acknowledging the Grok CLI full-repository/home-directory upload issue by 2026-08-03.
  As of 2026-08-03 deadline, xAI issued no formal security advisory, postmortem, or changelog entry acknowledging the Grok Build CLI whole-repo/home-directory upload; multiple outlets (Glitchwire, AI Weekly, wire-level analysis) confirm a silent server-side fix (disable_codebase_upload:true) with no disclosure. Musk only tweeted a promise to delete data
  not a formal advisory. (graded 2026-08-03)
• ❌ #538 No formal EU/Schengen measure suspending Spain's Schengen participation (or an Article 29-type reintroduction of controls at all Spanish borders targeting Spain over Ceuta) is enacted by 2026-09-15, despite Italy's Tajani urging Schengen action against Spain. Fail = any such formal Spain-targeting Schengen suspension/measure is enacted before the deadline.
  Failed early: Italy formally suspended the Schengen free-movement regime with Spain over the Ceuta crisis, closing air/sea borders and imposing targeted checks on non-EU arrivals from Spain throughout August (announced 2026-07-31 by Meloni/Tajani/Salvini; confirmed by Euronews, The Hill, RTE). That is a formal Spain-targeting Schengen suspension, meeting the fail condition; the fade of the escalation narrative was wrong. (graded 2026-08-01)
• ❌ #536 FIFA does not withdraw, abandon, or indefinitely shelve its FIFA Forward Enterprise private-equity/World Cup stake-sale plan by 2026-08-31; Infantino holds the line despite UEFA's 55-association boycott vote. Fail = FIFA publicly announces it is abandoning, withdrawing, or pausing the private-equity plan before the deadline.
  Failed early. On 2026-07-31 Infantino publicly scrapped the FIFA Forward Enterprise plan, stating the 'proposal will not proceed' after UEFA/Concacaf/AFC rejection and an official's resignation (ESPN, BBC, CBS). The prediction bet FIFA would NOT abandon/withdraw the plan by 2026-08-31; it abandoned it before the deadline. (graded 2026-08-01)
• ❌ #434 Within 30 days of the Supreme Court ruling that states may bar transgender athletes from women's sports, at least one Democratic-led state takes formal governmental action
  an executive order, attorney-general legal directive, or newly introduced state legislation
  explicitly to preserve transgender-inclusive athletic participation in defiance of the ruling. Fail = only verbal statements, or no such action, by 2026-07-31.
  By the 2026-07-31 deadline, no Democratic-led state took new formal governmental action (executive order, AG legal directive, or newly introduced legislation) explicitly to preserve trans-inclusive athletics in defiance of the ruling. Blue states (CA, MN) merely continued allowing participation under pre-existing anti-discrimination statutes; coverage (WashTimes/WaPo, Jul 1-3) described 'no sign of budging' but only passive reliance on existing law, not the new affirmative action the prediction required. (graded 2026-07-31)
• ❌ #436 The SAVE America Act (SAVE Act voter-eligibility bill) will NOT pass the full U.S. House by 2026-07-31, following Speaker Johnson's failed procedural vote and open GOP rebellion. Fail = the House passes the SAVE Act (standalone, attached to the NDAA, or via reconciliation) by the deadline.
  House passed the SAVE America Act before the deadline
  attached to the $1.15T FY27 NDAA (Time, 2026-07-22) and via the budget-reconciliation framework (216-214) and Stop Insider Trading Act (Democracy Docket). It cleared the House by 2026-07-22, satisfying the fail condition; it remains stalled in the Senate. (graded 2026-07-30)
• ✅ #529 Iran's July 28, 2026 ballistic-missile attack on the US base in Jordan results in zero confirmed US military fatalities; CENTCOM's reported interception holds and no US service-member deaths are attributed to this specific attack. Fail = any US military fatality from the July 28 attack is confirmed by 2026-08-06.
  CENTCOM said all missiles in Iran's July 28 attack on the US base in Jordan (Muwaffaq Salti) were intercepted with no US casualties or damage (Al Jazeera/IranWire, 2026-07-29). Zero confirmed US fatalities as predicted. (graded 2026-07-30)
• ✅ #523 The US carries out at least one new airstrike on Iran (resuming combat after the July 24-25 pause) before 2026-08-17. Fail = no US strike on Iran occurs in that window (the pause/de-escalation holds through the deadline).
  US resumed strikes on Iran after the July 28 IRGC missile attack on the base in Jordan; 'U.S. resumes strikes against Iran, retaliating against surprise missile attack' (CNBC/r/worldnews, 2026-07-30), well before the 2026-08-17 deadline. (graded 2026-07-30)
• ✅ #524 The confirmed death toll from the July 28, 2026 magnitude-7.1 Kumamoto (Kyushu) earthquake and the Aeon Mall explosion/collapse reaches at least 15 by 2026-08-11. Fail = confirmed toll stays below 15 at the deadline.
  Kumamoto (Kyushu) M7.1 quake death toll reached 18 by 2026-07-28/29 (5 dead at Aeon Mall Kashima, 5 at Nippon Paper factory chimney collapse, plus others), exceeding the 15 threshold well before the 2026-08-11 deadline. Per CBS News, Al Jazeera, France 24. (graded 2026-07-29)
• ✅ #442 The Warsh Fed holds its policy rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, neither cutting despite the weak +57k June jobs report nor hiking as the June dot plot leaned. Fail = any rate change (cut or hike) announced July 29.
  FOMC voted 9-3 on 2026-07-29 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% (three members dissented for a hike, none for a cut), per CNBC 'Divided Fed holds interest rates steady.' No rate change announced
  held exactly as predicted. (graded 2026-07-29)
• ✅ #430 No mandatory transit fee or toll will actually be collected from commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by 2026-07-30; the waterway remains fee-free for commercial transit through that date despite the Oman-Iran fee-plan proposal.
  Correct (locked one day early). Iran rejected Oman's 50-50 Hormuz shipping plan on 2026-07-28 (Iran International), and no mandatory transit toll was ever collected from commercial shipping through the 2026-07-30 window. The fee plan collapsed rather than being implemented. (graded 2026-07-29)
• ❌ #482 Iran hits or seizes no ADDITIONAL commercial vessel in or near the Strait of Hormuz (beyond the July 11 'unauthorised vessel' strike) through 2026-07-26; the closure is walked back diplomatically rather than escalating into sustained ship attacks. Fail = Iran sinks, strikes, or seizes another commercial ship in the strait before the deadline.
  Failed early. Iran (IRGC) struck additional commercial vessels well after the July 11 baseline: it attacked a container ship on ~July 12 and, per CNN's July 13 coverage, 'struck and disabled' two supertankers (al-Bahiya and Mombasa) in the Strait, killing an Indian crew member. The incident escalated into sustained ship attacks and a US-Iran war/blockade rather than de-escalating diplomatically. (graded 2026-07-26)
• ❌ #486 No federal court grants a preliminary injunction halting the Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery merger by 2026-09-15. Fail = a court issues a PI/TRO blocking or pausing the deal before then.
  N.D. Cal. granted a temporary restraining order halting the $110B Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery merger on 2026-07-20; Paramount then agreed to postpone closing until after an antitrust trial (or June 1, 2027). The prediction counted a TRO pausing the deal as a fail. (graded 2026-07-25)
• ❌ #487 No state party formally withdraws from (or announces/deposits an Article 127 withdrawal from) the Rome Statute of the ICC as a result of the US pressure campaign by 2026-09-15.
  Venezuela notified the UN of its 'firm and irrevocable decision' to withdraw from the Rome Statute (announced 2026-07-24/25, per France24/Al Jazeera), triggering the prediction's explicit fail line ('any state party announces or deposits a Rome Statute withdrawal'). Nuance: Venezuela's stated motive was ICC 'bias' and its own Maduro-era crimes-against-humanity probe (repeal process begun Dec 2025), not the Rubio 'dismantle the ICC' campaign
  but the fail condition as written was unconditional. (graded 2026-07-25)
• ❌ #432 The FDA Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee will vote AGAINST recommending BPC-157 for inclusion on the 503A Bulk Drug Substances List at its July 23-24 meeting, declining to ease compounding access despite RFK Jr.'s push. Fail = panel votes to recommend BPC-157 for inclusion.
  FDA Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee voted 8-6 on 2026-07-23 to RECOMMEND BPC-157 (and KPV) for the 503A bulks list, overriding FDA career scientists' objections
  the panel eased access rather than declining it (STAT News, The Hill, RAPS, 2026-07-23). This is the fail condition. (graded 2026-07-25)
• ✅ #470 Troy Jackson wins the Maine Democratic Party convention to become the replacement U.S. Senate nominee, by 2026-07-28. Fail = any other candidate (e.g. Shenna Bellows, Nirav Shah, Dan Kleban) is chosen, or no nominee is selected by the deadline.
  Maine Democrats formally nominated Troy Jackson to replace Platner as U.S. Senate nominee, per NYT ('Troy Jackson Picked to Replace Platner as Democratic Nominee') and NPR (2026-07-25), ahead of the 2026-07-28 deadline. (graded 2026-07-25)
• ✅ #506 The July 17, 2026 M7.4 Chiapas/Guatemala-border earthquake results in fewer than 15 confirmed deaths and produces no destructive tsunami (no tsunami-attributed fatalities and no waves causing major coastal damage) through 2026-07-24. Fail = confirmed toll reaches 15+ or a destructive tsunami is documented.
  The July 17 M7.4 Chiapas quake caused no deaths (Guatemala's Arevalo confirmed zero deaths, no damage) and the tsunami alert was lifted with no destructive waves (France 24, CNN, US News), through the 07-24 deadline. (graded 2026-07-25)
• ❌ #465 Brent crude does not close above $85/barrel on any day through 2026-07-31, despite the July 7 US strikes on Iran and the revoked Iranian oil-sale waiver. Fail = Brent settles above $85 on any day before the deadline.
  Brent closed at $100.69 on 2026-07-23 (intraday high ~$102), its first close above $100 since May, after Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea
  well above the $85 threshold, so the 'stays below $85' call failed early (CNBC, Bloomberg, The National). (graded 2026-07-25)
• ✅ #431 South Africa's June 2026 anti-immigrant wave does not escalate to 2008-scale mass-casualty violence: cumulative confirmed deaths attributed to the xenophobic campaign stay below 25 through 2026-07-21, and no nationwide state of emergency is declared.
  The feared 2008-scale escalation did not occur: confirmed deaths attributed to the 2026 xenophobic wave stayed at ~4 (Xenowatch/HRW/CNN), far below 25, and no nationwide state of emergency was declared by 07-21. (graded 2026-07-25)
• ❌ #428 Trump fires or formally moves to remove at least one Senate-confirmed Democratic member of an independent agency (FTC, FCC, NLRB, SEC, or FEC) within 21 days, explicitly citing the new Supreme Court ruling.
  No fresh removal of a Senate-confirmed Democratic member of FTC/FCC/NLRB/SEC/FEC explicitly citing the June 29 ruling occurred within the 21-day window; the FTC (Slaughter/Bedoya) firings predated the ruling, and the only major post-ruling action (EAC, July 10) is not among the five named agencies. (graded 2026-07-25)
• ✅ #427 Lisa Cook remains a sitting Federal Reserve governor; Trump does not effectuate her removal from the Board despite vowing to 'take appropriate action immediately.'
  Cook remains a sitting Fed governor as of late July 2026; SCOTUS (25A312, 06/29/2026) left her reinstatement in place, and no removal occurred by the 07-21 deadline (Gibson Dunn, CNBC, The Hill). (graded 2026-07-25)
• ❌ #512 Lionel Messi wins the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot (tournament top scorer). Fail = Kylian Mbappe or any other player finishes as sole Golden Boot winner.
  Mbappe won the Golden Boot with 10 goals (brace in the 6-4 third-place loss to England); Messi stayed on 8 and did not score in Argentina's 1-0 final defeat. Per Fox Sports/Goal Golden Boot tracker. (graded 2026-07-19)
• ✅ #502 FIFA imposes no sporting sanction on Argentina over the 'Las Malvinas son Argentinas' banner
  no points deduction, disqualification, or player suspension affecting the July 19 World Cup final; any penalty is limited to a fine and/or reprimand.
  Argentina played the final at full strength (Enzo Fernandez started and was sent off in-match); White House FIFA task force gave the Falklands banner a green light. No points deduction/DQ/player suspension affected the July 19 final
  2014 precedent (fine/reprimand) held. (graded 2026-07-19)
• ✅ #497 Spain defeats Argentina to win the 2026 World Cup final on July 19, 2026. Fail = Argentina wins the final (in regulation, extra time, or on penalties).
  Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in the World Cup final at MetLife Stadium on 2026-07-19 (Argentina down to 10 after Enzo Fernandez red card). Per ESPN/FIFA. (graded 2026-07-19)
• ❌ #484 No US service member is killed in Iran's attacks on US bases in the Gulf through 2026-07-27.
  Failed early: CENTCOM confirmed 2 U.S. service members killed in action (1 missing) on 2026-07-18 as partner forces defended against Iranian ballistic-missile and drone attacks in Jordan (per BBC and NPR), nine days before the 2026-07-27 deadline. The predicted non-event (no US KIA in Iran's Gulf-base attacks) did not hold. (graded 2026-07-18)
• ❌ #298 Apple will announce iPhone price increases of at least $50 per model on its next flagship line within 30 days, explicitly citing the memory shortage as a cost driver, representing the first publicly attributed memory-cost price hike on a flagship iPhone in over five years.
  Failed. Tim Cook confirmed 'unavoidable' price increases citing the memory/RAM shortage (2026-06-17) and Apple raised Mac/iPad prices in June
  but the iPhone was explicitly one product line NOT raised, and the next flagship (iPhone 18) has not launched. No announced iPhone flagship price hike of $50+ attributed to memory by the 2026-07-17 deadline (9to5Mac/MacRumors/TechRepublic). (graded 2026-07-17)
• ❌ #295 OpenAI will announce a major equity fundraise or debt financing round of at least $5 billion within 30 days as losses mount, pricing the round at a valuation below its most recent $300 billion mark to attract investors amid heightened scrutiny of AI unit economics.
  Failed. No sub-$300B OpenAI raise occurred. OpenAI's most recent round closed at an $852B valuation ($122B raised, March/April 2026) and its mid-July 2026 valuation is estimated ~$965B
  an up-round, the opposite of the predicted sub-$300B down-round. No qualifying event by the 2026-07-17 deadline (CNBC/Bloomberg). (graded 2026-07-17)
• ✅ #294 The Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh will hold interest rates unchanged at the next scheduled FOMC meeting and issue no forward guidance, confirming the new policy of discontinuing rate guidance as a permanent regime change rather than a one-time omission.
  Confirmed correct. At Warsh's first FOMC (June 17, 2026) the Fed held rates unanimously at 3.50-3.75% AND eliminated forward guidance ('not well suited for the current policy conjuncture'), cutting the statement to 130 words; Warsh even abstained from the SEP dot plot. Both legs of the prediction satisfied (CNBC/Fox Business/CNN, 2026-06-17). (graded 2026-07-17)
• ✅ #493 ICE resumes conducting non-urgent vehicle/traffic stops by 2026-08-14, publicly documented (a news-reported new ICE vehicle stop or a DHS statement lifting the pause); the July 14 'pause' proves a temporary, source-reported operational measure, not a durable policy change. Fail = no documented resumption of ICE non-urgent vehicle stops through the deadline (pause holds or is codified as permanent).
  White House stated ICE traffic stops will continue (NPR, 2026-07-16), publicly reversing the reported pause well before the 2026-08-14 deadline
  satisfying the 'DHS statement lifting the pause' correct-condition. (graded 2026-07-16)
• ✅ #425 Andy Burnham will be formally confirmed as Labour Party leader without a contested membership vote, becoming UK Prime Minister before July 20, 2025, after no other MP meets the nomination threshold before the deadline.
  Nominations closed 2026-07-13 with Burnham the sole candidate (349 MP nominations, ~90%+ of the caucus), making any rival challenge mathematically impossible
  the uncontested-confirmation core resolved true. He formally takes the Labour leadership at a special conference 2026-07-17 and becomes PM 2026-07-20 (Al Jazeera/RTE/Irish Times, 2026-07-13). (graded 2026-07-16)
• ❌ #424 The Biden-era Temporary Protected Status termination for Haitian nationals will result in the Department of Homeland Security issuing formal deportation notices to at least 50,000 Haitian TPS holders within 21 days of the Supreme Court ruling.
  No batch of 50,000+ formal deportation notices to Haitian TPS holders was issued within 21 days of the 2026-06-25 SCOTUS ruling. As of the 2026-07-16 deadline Haiti TPS remained valid under a lower-court stay and USCIS had extended EAD validity (~July 24); termination not expected to take effect until ~July 27 (USCIS/Federal Register, July 2026). (graded 2026-07-16)
• ❌ #480 England reaches the 2026 World Cup final, winning its July 15 semifinal against Argentina or Switzerland. Fail = England loses the semifinal and does not reach the final.
  England lost the July 15 semifinal to Argentina 2-1 (Enzo Fernández 85', Lautaro Martínez in stoppage time) and did not reach the final. Argentina faces Spain in the July 19 final per NPR/NBC/Al Jazeera. (graded 2026-07-15)
• ✅ #407 Andy Burnham will win the Labour Party leadership contest and be confirmed as the next UK Prime Minister before Parliament returns in September 2025.
  Burnham won the Labour leadership uncontested: nominations closed 2026-07-13 at 349 MPs, making any challenge mathematically impossible (needed 81). Formal confirmation at a special conference Fri 2026-07-17; becomes PM 2026-07-20
  before Parliament returns in September. Per Bloomberg/RTE/Irish Times. (graded 2026-07-15)
• ❌ #380 Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will call a confidence vote or announce early elections within 25 days following his wife Begona Gomez being ordered to stand trial, as opposition parties use the trial order to destabilize his minority government.
  Deadline (2026-07-15) passed with no confidence vote called and no early elections announced. Congress passed only a non-binding PP/Vox/Junts motion urging Sánchez to face a confidence vote, but the instrument is the PM's alone to trigger and he declined; case against Begoña Gómez proceeded to the trial phase without a government collapse. Per ara.cat/Euro Weekly News, June 2026. (graded 2026-07-15)
• ❌ #472 France reaches the 2026 World Cup final, winning its July 14 semifinal against Spain or Belgium. Fail = France loses the semifinal and does not reach the final.
  France lost its July 14 semifinal 2-0 to Spain and did not reach the final (NPR, 2026-07-14: 'Spain sparkles to shock France 2-0 and advance to the World Cup final'). (graded 2026-07-14)
• ✅ #468 E. Jean Carroll actually collects the ~$5.8M judgment (funds disbursed to her) by 2026-09-01, despite Trump's notice of appeal and SCOTUS rehearing bid. Fail = money not released to Carroll by the deadline.
  Carroll received the ~$5.6M payment: NYT (2026-07-14) 'E. Jean Carroll Receives $5.6 Million Payment From Trump in Civil Case' and BBC confirm the judge-ordered funds were disbursed after Trump exhausted appeals. Graded early (deadline was 2026-09-01). (graded 2026-07-14)
• ❌ #414 The 50-year terrorism sentences against the Texas anti-ICE protesters will be formally appealed and a federal court will issue a stay of sentencing pending appeal within 21 days, citing potential Eighth Amendment disproportionality.
  Defendants filed notices of appeal to the 5th Circuit, but no federal court issued a stay of sentencing pending appeal by the 2026-07-14 deadline. The 'appeal filed' half occurred; the required stay did not. Per CBS/KERA/Yahoo coverage through early-mid July, appeals were promised/noticed but no stay granted. (graded 2026-07-14)
• ✅ #481 South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster names an interim appointee to fill Lindsey Graham's US Senate seat on or before 2026-08-01
  the seat is filled before the Aug 11 special primary, not left vacant awaiting the ballot outcome. Fail = no appointee named by the deadline.
  McMaster appointed Graham's sister Darline Graham Nordone to finish the term on 2026-07-13, well before the Aug 1 deadline and the Aug 11 special primary (NYT/NPR, 2026-07-13). Seat filled quickly, not left vacant
  as predicted. (graded 2026-07-13)
• ❌ #408 Iran will formally agree to cap uranium enrichment at or below 20 percent as part of the 60-day framework talks, publicly announced by US and Iranian negotiators before the 60-day license expires.
  The US-Iran 60-day framework collapsed into open war before any enrichment-cap deal: the interim ceasefire broke down ~July 8, the US struck Iran for a third straight weekend, and Iran retaliated against US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar/Jordan/Oman (Al Jazeera, NPR, CNBC, 2026 Iran war). No joint US-Iran enrichment-cap announcement is possible by the 2026-07-17 deadline amid active strikes. (graded 2026-07-13)
• ❌ #410 The US will formally add at least five Chinese rare-earth or critical minerals companies to the Entity List within 21 days in direct retaliation for China's export control expansion targeting US defense firms.
  No US retaliation materialized: no evidence the US added five or more Chinese rare-earth/critical-minerals firms to the Entity List within the 21-day window; coverage through mid-July 2026 shows only China's June 22 controls on US firms, no reciprocal US Entity List action citing it. (graded 2026-07-13)
• ❌ #332 At least one major California-based technology billionaire will publicly announce plans to change their state residency before the November vote specifically citing the wealth tax ballot measure, creating a high-profile political flashpoint for the campaign.
  No qualifying event by the deadline: the well-known departures (Page, Brin, Thiel, Ellison, Zuckerberg) occurred before the Jan 1 2026 residency cutoff
  predating the measure's June 17 qualification
  and no major CA tech billionaire made a new public announcement to change residency specifically citing the Prop 40 ballot measure as a campaign flashpoint by 2026-07-13. (graded 2026-07-13)
• ❌ #329 The California billionaire wealth tax measure will be struck from the November ballot or declared legally invalid by a California state court within 25 days, on grounds that a one-time tax on existing wealth violates state constitutional provisions.
  Deadline passed with no court action: California's billionaire wealth tax (Prop 40) remains on the Nov 3, 2026 ballot; no state court struck it or declared it invalid within the 25-day window (per Ballotpedia/CalMatters/Tax Foundation, July 2026). (graded 2026-07-13)
• ❌ #405 The US Senate will formally vote on a resolution disapproving or conditioning the US-Iran nuclear MOU within 21 days, with the resolution attracting at least 10 Republican votes in addition to Democratic support, but falling short of a veto-proof majority.
  No Senate resolution disapproving/conditioning the US-Iran nuclear MOU was voted on by the 2026-07-12 deadline. The only related vote was the War Powers resolution (passed 50-48 on 2026-06-24), which addressed removing forces from hostilities
  not the MOU
  and drew only 4 Republican votes, far short of the predicted ≥10. (graded 2026-07-12)
• ❌ #100 The Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery merger will be formally closed and finalized within 30 days following DOJ clearance, before UK regulatory review results in any blocking action.
  As of 2026-07-11 the Paramount–WBD merger remains unclosed; per SEC filings and reporting it is still pending WBD shareholder and regulatory approval and is expected to close Q3 2026 (with a ticking fee if not closed by Sept 30). Closing by the 2026-07-12 deadline is impossible. (graded 2026-07-11)
• ❌ #475 The 26-year-old man arrested over Ann Widdecombe's death is formally charged with her murder by 2026-08-10 (not released without charge or held on bail past the deadline).
  The 26-year-old man arrested on suspicion of Widdecombe's murder was released and is 'no longer part of the investigation' (BBC, 2026-07-11)
  released without charge, meeting the prediction's explicit fail condition well before the 2026-08-10 deadline. (graded 2026-07-11)
• ✅ #464 The July 7 US strikes on Iran prove a one-off retaliatory flare, not the start of a sustained war: by 2026-07-24 the US and Iran publicly return to the de-escalation framework (renewed talks announced, OR the revoked oil-sale waiver reinstated, OR a new ceasefire/pause declared). Fail = an expanded/sustained US military campaign (further strike waves continuing past 7 days, or US ground operations in Iran) with no return to talks by the deadline.
  Return to de-escalation framework confirmed: FM Araghchi traveled to Oman for talks on 2026-07-11 (NYT: 'Iran's Top Diplomat Is in Oman For Talks'); CNN (2026-07-10) reports mediators working to revive US-Iran talks and Trump saying talks would continue
  a return to negotiations well before the 2026-07-24 deadline, not a sustained military campaign. (graded 2026-07-11)
• ❌ #384 Poland and Ukraine will fail to restore full diplomatic normalcy within 21 days after the Polish honours dispute, with Zelensky declining to accept any compromise framework proposed by Warsaw, leaving bilateral relations formally downgraded at the foreign ministry level.
  No formal foreign-ministry-level downgrade occurred. Contrary to the thesis, Ukraine PROPOSED a compromise 'anti-crisis package' on 2026-07-04 (FM consultations, historians' meeting, religious-leader outreach) and both sides kept diplomatic channels open, seeking reconciliation rather than downgrading relations (Notes From Poland, Ukrainska Pravda, United24). (graded 2026-07-11)
• ❌ #438 Trump signs the bipartisan 21st Century Road to Housing Act into law by 2026-08-31, backing off his demand that the SAVE Act pass first.
  Bill became law at midnight 2026-07-10/11 WITHOUT Trump's signature (NPR): Trump refused to sign, maintaining his demand that the SAVE Act pass first rather than backing off. The bill is enacted unsigned, so the predicted 'Trump signs it' outcome is now moot
  fail condition (bill unsigned) is met and irreversible. (graded 2026-07-10)
• ❌ #336 South Africa will formally expel or declare persona non grata at least one senior US diplomatic official within 21 days in retaliation for the US decision to phase out HIV and AIDS funding, marking the most serious diplomatic rupture between the two countries in decades.
  No evidence South Africa expelled or declared PNG any US diplomat by the 2026-07-10 deadline. The only expulsion in the relationship ran the other direction (Rubio declared SA ambassador Rasool persona non grata months earlier). Pretoria's response to the HIV funding phase-out stayed rhetorical/diplomatic, not a formal expulsion. (graded 2026-07-10)
• ✅ #460 Graham Platner withdraws as the Democratic nominee in the Maine Senate race by 2026-07-13 (the state deadline to be replaced on the ballot). Fail = Platner remains the nominee past the July 13 withdrawal deadline.
  Platner suspended his Senate campaign Wednesday 2026-07-08 (video on social media), five days before the July 13 withdrawal deadline. Confirmed by NYT ('the campaign, which he suspended Wednesday'), NPR ('Graham Platner ended his bid last night'), and r/politics megathread. Maine Dems now moving to pick a replacement via convention before July 27. (graded 2026-07-09)
• ❌ #426 Iran will formally announce a unilateral closure or restriction order on the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, halting the resumed tanker traffic and reversing the current gradual reopening, in response to continued military pressure.
  Iran made no formal/official closure or restriction announcement in the window. The July 7 Hormuz tanker attacks (Al Rekayat, Wedyan, +1) were unclaimed ('no official claims were made'), and FM Araghchi affirmed continued Iranian 'oversight and management' of the strait rather than declaring closure. Traffic collapsed via unclaimed attacks, not a formal order. Per Al Jazeera/CNBC (2026-07-07). (graded 2026-07-09)
• ❌ #421 The IAEA will formally confirm that inspectors have conducted on-site visits to at least two Iranian uranium enrichment facilities, including Natanz or Fordow, within 15 days as part of the interim deal framework.
  IAEA never confirmed on-site visits to two Iranian enrichment sites by the deadline. Iran's Foreign Ministry said inspectors were not scheduled to examine the struck nuclear sites; only Bushehr remained accessible, not Natanz/Fordow. The ceasefire frayed and the US struck Iran again July 7. Per Euronews (2026-06-24) and IAEA updates. (graded 2026-07-09)
• ❌ #328 Israel will conduct a unilateral military strike on an Iranian nuclear or military facility within 21 days, defying the US-Iran MOU and triggering a formal US diplomatic rebuke of Netanyahu's government.
  Deadline passed with no fresh Israeli unilateral strike defying the MOU or US rebuke of Netanyahu. The escalation that occurred (July 7) was a US CENTCOM strike wave on Iran after Iran hit tankers in Hormuz, not an Israeli spoiler strike; the ceasefire frayed via US-Iran hostilities. Per Al Jazeera/NPR (2026-07-07). (graded 2026-07-09)
• ❌ #418 Trump will veto the war powers resolution passed by Congress directing him to halt Iran military operations, and the veto will be sustained in the House with fewer than the two-thirds majority needed to override, within 14 days.
  No veto occurred. The Iran war powers measure passed as a concurrent resolution, which does not go to the president and cannot be vetoed (per NPR/CNN coverage of the June 3 House vote). Trump instead defied the resolution outright, launching fresh strikes on Iran on 2026-07-07. The predicted veto-and-sustained-override sequence never happened by the 2026-07-08 deadline. (graded 2026-07-08)
• ❌ #297 A federal judge will grant a preliminary injunction blocking the FTC lawsuit against WPATH within 21 days, ruling that the FTC lacks jurisdiction over a medical standards-setting organization under its consumer protection statutes.
  No federal court granted a preliminary injunction blocking the FTC's June 2026 lawsuit against WPATH on jurisdictional grounds by the deadline. WPATH's earlier injunction (Judge Boasberg) blocked the FTC investigation on First Amendment retaliation grounds and predates this prediction; it did not block the lawsuit on the FTC-lacks-jurisdiction theory claimed here. (graded 2026-07-08)
• ❌ #296 The US Senate will pass a resolution of disapproval or formally vote to reject the US-Iran memorandum of understanding within 21 days, with bipartisan support from Republican dissenters and Democrats, creating a constitutional confrontation over the deal's validity.
  No Senate vote to disapprove or reject the US-Iran MOU itself occurred by the 2026-07-08 deadline. The Senate's late-June action was a separate war-powers resolution directing troop withdrawal, not a resolution rejecting the MOU's validity. Moot as of 2026-07-07 when the US launched fresh strikes on Iran. (graded 2026-07-08)
• ❌ #461 The US-Iran ceasefire MOU is not formally abrogated and the US does not resume announced/sustained military operations against Iran through 2026-08-07, despite Iran resuming Strait of Hormuz attacks. Fail = either party formally withdraws from/declares the MOU dead, OR the US resumes military operations against Iran, before the deadline.
  US CENTCOM announced 'a series of powerful strikes' on Iran on 2026-07-07 in response to Iranian attacks on 3 tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Treasury revoked the oil-sale waiver
  the US resumed military operations against Iran, triggering the stated fail condition well before the 2026-08-07 deadline. Per The Hill, ABC News, NBC News, CNN. (graded 2026-07-07)
• ❌ #454 The USA beats Belgium in the World Cup Round of 16 (July 6) and advances to the quarterfinals. Fail = USA loses (in regulation, extra time, or on penalties) and is eliminated.
  USA lost to Belgium 4-1 in the World Cup Round of 16 and was eliminated (r/news/CNBC, 2026-07-05). Balogun played after his ban was lifted, but the host nation did not advance. (graded 2026-07-07)
• ❌ #452 The Paris Court of Appeal upholds Marine Le Pen's public-office ineligibility in its July 7 ruling, leaving her barred from the 2027 French presidential race. Fail = the court overturns the conviction or lifts/suspends the ineligibility so that she becomes eligible to run in 2027.
  Paris Court of Appeal on 2026-07-07 upheld Le Pen's embezzlement conviction but SHORTENED her ineligibility ban, clearing a path for her to run in 2027 (she can stand if she wears an electronic tag)
  per NYT and BBC. The ban did not survive as predicted; the court lifted/suspended it enough to make her eligible. (graded 2026-07-07)
• ❌ #415 The US will impose targeted sanctions on at least two RSF commanders directly responsible for atrocities in El Obeid within 14 days of the imminent atrocity warning, marking the first formal punitive US action against named RSF individuals since the warning was issued.
  Deadline 2026-07-07 passed. No new OFAC action against El Obeid RSF commanders in the 14-day window; the only RSF-commander sanctions (Treasury, Feb 19 2026) targeted El-Fasher atrocities and predate the El Obeid warning. Guardian (2026-07-04) still describes ongoing El Obeid drone strikes with no US punitive follow-up. Burden unmet. (graded 2026-07-07)
• ❌ #413 The US-Iran nuclear talks will produce a second round scheduled within 14 days of the Switzerland meeting, with Iran publicly committing to suspend enrichment above 60 percent as a confidence-building measure before any final deal is signed.
  Deadline 2026-07-07 passed with no evidence of the specific compound claim. Talks continue within the June-15 60-day framework, but no public Iranian commitment to suspend enrichment above 60% materialized; enrichment duration remains disputed (US wants 20yr, Iran offers 5yr) per Al Jazeera/PBS/Arms Control Assoc. Burden on prediction unmet. (graded 2026-07-07)
• ❌ #409 The Qatar LNG explosion will cause a temporary reduction in Qatari LNG export volumes of at least 10 percent, with at least one major European buyer formally declaring force majeure or seeking alternative supply within 14 days.
  Deadline 2026-07-06 passed with no qualifying event. The blast hit the Barzan plant, which supplies domestic pipeline gas, not Qatar's LNG export trains; Qatar's energy minister said LNG exports were unaffected (Al Jazeera, 2026-06-22). No 10%+ export cut and no European buyer force majeure materialized. (graded 2026-07-06)
• ✅ #429 Venezuela's confirmed earthquake death toll surpasses 2,500 by 2026-07-15 as rubble recovery in La Guaira concludes.
  NYT (2026-07-04) 'Two Earthquakes Hit Venezuela' reports the twin quakes have killed more than 2,900 people
  toll surpassed 2,500 well before the 2026-07-15 deadline. (graded 2026-07-05)
• ✅ #404 The NHTSA will formally open or escalate an existing special investigation into Tesla Autopilot within 14 days of the Harris County fatal crash, resulting in a public records request or subpoena to Tesla for Autopilot engagement data from the incident vehicle.
  NHTSA opened a special crash investigation into the June 20 Katy, TX Model 3 crash that killed Martha Avila on June 22 2026 (well within 14 days); investigators are pulling the vehicle's event data recorder and onboard logs for driver-assist engagement data, per CNBC/Electrek. (graded 2026-07-05)
• ✅ #196 Anthropic will restore access to the restricted cybersecurity AI models for foreign users within 21 days after reaching a negotiated agreement with the White House that includes usage restrictions or monitoring requirements, rather than a sustained full ban.
  White House lifted export controls on Anthropic's Mythos/Fable models ~2026-06-30 to 07-01 (WaPo, Fortune, Forbes, CBS); access restored globally including foreign nationals under a negotiated deal with prerelease federal review/monitoring
  within the 21-day window and matching the 'monitored access, not a sustained ban' call. (graded 2026-07-04)
• ❌ #419 Brad Lander will formally announce his candidacy for New York City Mayor in the 2025 general election within 10 days, positioning himself as the leading progressive challenger following his primary win over Rep. Dan Goldman.
  Lander did not announce an NYC mayoral run; he won the NY-10 Democratic congressional primary over Dan Goldman on 2026-06-23 and is running for Congress. The mayoral event never occurred (the mayoral race concluded in 2025). (graded 2026-07-04)
• ❌ #382 Australia will impose a national movement restriction on poultry and captive birds across at least three states within 14 days of the H5N1 detection, representing the most significant biosecurity response in Australia since the 2011 equine influenza outbreak.
  As of 2026-06-30 Australia had only 5 H5N1 detections, all in wild migratory seabirds with zero poultry cases; response stayed at surveillance level. No multi-state poultry movement restriction was imposed by the 2026-07-04 deadline. (graded 2026-07-04)
• ❌ #381 Bolivia's state of emergency will result in the government formally entering negotiations with protest leaders and announcing a partial rollback of at least one austerity measure within 14 days, ending the blockades in major transit corridors.
  Blockades were cleared via military deployment under the state of emergency, not a negotiated austerity rollback. Paz instead deepened reforms (floated the boliviano, ending the dollar peg, on 2026-06-29). No partial rollback of an austerity measure occurred by the deadline. (graded 2026-07-04)
• ❌ #151 The UK government will introduce formal legislation in Parliament banning social media accounts for under-16s within 21 days, with a specific enforcement mechanism targeting platforms rather than individual users.
  Govt announced the under-16 policy 2026-06-15 but said legislation would be brought to Parliament 'before Christmas,' with protections in Spring 2027. No formal bill was introduced within 21 days (by 2026-07-04). (graded 2026-07-04)
• ❌ #149 The UK Home Secretary will formally proscribe at least one far-right organization under the Terrorism Act within 21 days, directly triggered by the Northern Ireland riots and Tommy Robinson's detention under counter-terrorism powers.
  No new far-right proscription in the 21-day window. The UK's 2026 far-right proscriptions (Maniacs Murder Cult, Russian Imperial Movement) took force July 2025, not in response to the June 2026 riots; no organization was proscribed by the 2026-07-04 deadline. (graded 2026-07-04)
• ✅ #334 Andy Burnham will formally launch a challenge for the Labour Party leadership within 21 days, triggering a public leadership contest that forces Keir Starmer to set a departure timetable.
  Resolved correct: Starmer resigned and a Labour leadership timetable was set with Burnham as the frontrunner/uncontested candidate; BBC (2026-07-03) 'Burnham rules out calling early election as PM' confirms he launched and won the contest and is set to become PM this month
  well within the 2026-07-10 deadline. (graded 2026-07-03)
• ❌ #422 The SAVE America Act will pass the House through a third budget reconciliation bill within 21 days, advancing to the Senate after Speaker Johnson commits to bringing it to the floor as a condition for the housing bill signing.
  Collapsed well before the 2026-07-15 deadline: Speaker Johnson's rule to attach SAVE to the NDAA failed 224-198 with ~13 GOP defections, votes were canceled and the House sent home for July 4 recess (returns July 13), and Sen. Tillis declared the bill 'dead' as time ran out to implement new voting rules. Passage via reconciliation by July 15 became impossible. (graded 2026-07-03)
• ❌ #335 Italy will formally downgrade or suspend bilateral diplomatic consultations with the United States at the ambassadorial level within 14 days as the Meloni-Trump dispute escalates beyond the cancelled foreign minister visit.
  The Tajani US-visit cancellation (the prediction's trigger, ~2026-06-19) escalated the Meloni-Trump spat but Italy issued NO formal ambassadorial-level downgrade or suspension of bilateral consultations by the deadline; instead Rome tilted closer to the EU (Al Jazeera, Foreign Policy 2026-07-01). (graded 2026-07-03)
• ❌ #333 Iran will formally implement mandatory insurance fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, with at least one major shipping company publicly announcing route changes or cost surcharges as a direct result.
  Iran imposed a mandatory-insurance REQUIREMENT on Hormuz transits via the new PGSA, but coverage was initially provided free
  actual insurance FEES were only reserved 'to follow', not implemented, and no major shipping company announced route changes/surcharges as a direct result by the deadline (Lloyd's List, Insurance Journal). Fee + shipping-response conditions unmet. (graded 2026-07-03)
• ❌ #327 Iran will formally reject or walk back a key commitment in the MOU within 15 days, specifically on uranium enrichment limits, forcing a public renegotiation or suspension of the 60-day nuclear talks before they conclude.
  Iran rejected the US demand to surrender/transfer its 60%-enriched stockpile (a stated red line), but this did NOT force a public renegotiation or suspension of the 60-day talks
  the talks continued within the window and stockpile disposal was deferred to follow-on talks rather than a signed MOU term being walked back (Al Jazeera, Wikipedia 2025-26 negotiations). Compound claim unmet. (graded 2026-07-03)
• ❌ #99 SpaceX shares will fall back below the $135 IPO price within 21 days after the initial trading surge fades and profit-taking accelerates.
  SpaceX (SPCX) never closed below the $135 IPO price in the window. It briefly dipped below its $150 debut/open price around 2026-06-23 during a $600bn sell-off but recovered; 52-week low is exactly $135.00 (the IPO), and it traded ~$157.69 on 2026-07-02 (Yahoo Finance, Al Jazeera). Below-debut is not below-IPO-price. (graded 2026-07-03)
• ❌ #403 The FDA will grant full formal approval to Moderna's mRNA vaccine within 14 days of the unanimous advisory committee vote, making it officially approved for at least one adult indication.
  FDA set its decision (PDUFA) date for Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine at Aug 5, 2026 after the June 18 unanimous advisory vote. Full approval by the 07-05 deadline was impossible
  no approval issued as of the brief; decision date is a month past the deadline. Per BioPharm International / TechTimes. (graded 2026-07-02)
• ✅ #423 Bayer's stock price will rise at least 10 percent within 7 days of the Supreme Court ruling in Monsanto v. Durnell, as markets price in the elimination of thousands of pending Roundup liability cases.
  Bayer shares closed up ~17-19% on 2026-06-25, the ruling day, their largest daily gain since 2003 (CNBC/Forbes/Yahoo Finance), well above the 10% threshold within 7 days. (graded 2026-07-02)
• ❌ #51 The US Senate will confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence within 21 days, and Congress will pass a short-term Section 702 FISA extension bundled with or shortly after the confirmation.
  Confirmation hearing was postponed indefinitely after Trump himself called to pause the nominee and tied FISA 702 reauthorization to passage of the SAVE Act (NPR/NBC, June 17). No Senate confirmation vote and no Section 702 extension by the 2026-07-02 deadline. (graded 2026-07-02)
• ❌ #420 France will implement mandatory quarantine or movement restrictions on all individuals who had contact with the confirmed Ebola case within 7 days, with contact tracing identifying at least 50 high-risk individuals requiring monitoring.
  Threshold not met. Per Al Jazeera/Tech Times, France identified only ~5 fellow passengers as possible contacts (all told to self-isolate 21 days). No evidence contact tracing reached 50+ high-risk individuals by the deadline. (graded 2026-07-01)
• ❌ #406 The African Union will issue a formal statement questioning the legitimacy of Ethiopia's parliamentary election within 10 days, citing irregularities in vote counting or access restrictions in conflict-affected regions, stopping short of rejecting the result outright.
  Opposite outcome. The AU Election Observation Mission (led by Uhuru Kenyatta) assessed the 1 June vote as peaceful and democratic with no significant irregularities in its 3 June preliminary statement
  it did not question the election's legitimacy. (graded 2026-07-01)
• ❌ #4 Canada or Mexico will announce a suspension of USMCA renegotiation talks within 21 days in response to Trump's signal that he will not renew the agreement.
  No suspension occurred. Per CBC/Bloomberg/Globalnews, Trump said the US won't renew USMCA, but Canada and Mexico did NOT suspend talks
  the trilateral review continued (June 16-17 Washington round; next round scheduled week of July 20 in Mexico City). (graded 2026-07-01)
• ❌ #411 The WHO will formally declare the DRC Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern within 10 days of the case count crossing 1,000 confirmed cases.
  Settled-on-arrival error: WHO declared the DRC/Uganda Ebola outbreak a PHEIC on 2026-05-17, before this prediction was made on 2026-06-22. The declaration already existed when the 1,000-case threshold was crossed, so no new declaration occurs within the window. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #246 The WHO will declare the DRC Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern within 15 days as the case count surpasses 1000 confirmed infections.
  Settled-on-arrival error: the WHO declared the DRC/Uganda Ebola outbreak a PHEIC on 2026-05-17 (UN News, STAT, Doherty Institute), nearly a month BEFORE this prediction was made on 2026-06-16. No fresh PHEIC declaration could occur in the prediction's window since one was already in force. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #417 The UK government will formally declare a national heat emergency and activate its Heatwave Plan at Level 4 (National Emergency) within 5 days if temperatures reach or exceed 39 degrees Celsius as forecast by the Met Office.
  No historic Level 4 national heat emergency was declared; BBC (06-29) notes the heatwave passed and another 'could be on the way.' (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #416 The United States will formally reject the UN genocide inquiry findings within 7 days and introduce or co-sponsor a resolution at the UN Security Council to dissolve or defund the commission of inquiry.
  US rejection of the inquiry was likely but no co-sponsored UNSC resolution to dissolve or defund the commission materialized by 2026-06-30. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #402 Abelardo de la Espriella will win the Colombian presidential runoff, defeating Ivan Cepeda by a margin of at least 5 percentage points.
  No confirmation Espriella won the Colombian runoff by >=5 points; result unverified by the 2026-06-25 deadline. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #401 Keir Starmer will publicly announce a specific departure timetable by Wednesday June 18, 2025, committing to resign the Labour leadership by October 2025 at the latest, with a formal leadership contest to begin before the party conference.
  Starmer resigned outright around 2026-06-22 rather than announcing a June-18 timetable to depart by October; the predicted form and date were not met. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #383 UK counter-terrorism authorities will formally charge the Edinburgh stabbing suspect under terrorism legislation, specifically citing religiously aggravated motivation, within 10 days of the attack.
  No terrorism charge citing religiously aggravated motivation announced in the Edinburgh stabbing by 2026-06-30. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #379 The US-Iran Switzerland talks will produce a joint communique or interim framework document by June 24, 2025, but will fail to reach a final deal, with the 60-day Trump deadline remaining formally in place and no lifting of Strait of Hormuz restrictions announced.
  Contrary to the call, a US-Iran deal advanced (oil sanctions lifted, Hormuz traffic resumed) rather than stalling with restrictions intact and the 60-day deadline holding. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #337 The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire will formally collapse within 10 days, with Hezbollah officially declaring the agreement void and resuming rocket fire into northern Israel, following continued Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon.
  No formal Hezbollah declaration voiding the ceasefire or resumed rocket fire by 2026-06-29. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #331 Russia will conduct a retaliatory ballistic or cruise missile strike on a Ukrainian city outside the front lines, specifically targeting Kyiv infrastructure, within 7 days of the large-scale drone attack on Moscow, causing documented civilian casualties.
  No documented Russian strike specifically on Kyiv infrastructure within 7 days; the notable 06-21 strike hit Zaporizhzhia. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #330 The WHO will formally declare the DRC and Uganda Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern within 10 days of the case count surpassing 1,000, triggering coordinated international border health screening protocols.
  WHO issued no PHEIC for the DRC/Uganda Ebola outbreak by 2026-06-28; latest coverage (Guardian, 06-26) reports untraced cases but no declaration. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #247 A federal judge will issue a temporary restraining order blocking the DOJ from intervening in the NAACP Clean Air Act lawsuit against xAI within 14 days, ruling that national security is not a valid basis to preempt private citizen environmental suits.
  No federal TRO blocking DOJ intervention in the xAI Clean Air Act suit by 2026-06-30. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #245 The UK government will formally summon the Russian ambassador and announce targeted sanctions on the commanding officers of the frigate responsible for firing warning shots in the English Channel within 10 days.
  No announced UK sanctions on the Russian frigate's commanders by 2026-06-26. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #244 The Brazilian government formally retaliates against the US within 14 days by expelling American diplomatic personnel or imposing counter-sanctions on US officials involved in the Bolsonaro tariff and sanctions campaign.
  Brazil did not expel US personnel or impose counter-sanctions by 2026-06-30. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #199 At least one major US social media platform will publicly threaten retaliatory action or lobby the Trump administration to impose trade measures against the UK within 14 days in response to the announced under-16 social media ban.
  No US social-media platform publicly threatened trade retaliation against the UK by 2026-06-29. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #195 The Trump administration will formally threaten to withhold or condition US military aid to Israel within 14 days as a direct consequence of Netanyahu refusing to withdraw forces and defying the US-Iran ceasefire framework.
  No formal US threat to withhold or condition military aid to Israel by 2026-06-29. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #194 The US blockade of Iranian ports will be formally lifted within 10 days following the signing of the US-Iran framework agreement, with commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resuming at pre-crisis volumes.
  Blockade lifting occurred but Hormuz traffic only partially resumed (~70 crossings) and Iran re-closed the strait; pre-crisis volumes not reached by 2026-06-27. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #148 Anthropic will publicly challenge the US government export control directive in court or via formal regulatory appeal within 14 days, seeking to restore access to its restricted AI models for foreign users.
  No Anthropic court or regulatory challenge to the export-control order surfaced by 2026-06-27. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #102 The DOJ or FBI will publicly reveal the specific legal basis or criminal allegations underlying the Ohio Organizing Collaborative raid within 14 days, naming at least one individual target in charging documents or a formal warrant disclosure.
  No public disclosure of the legal basis or any named target in the Ohio Organizing Collaborative raid by 2026-06-26. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #52 The UK government will announce emergency legislation or invoke existing public order powers to ban specific far-right organizations linked to the Northern Ireland riots within 15 days.
  No emergency legislation or ban of specific far-right organizations linked to the NI riots by the 2026-06-26 deadline. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #49 The US-Iran nuclear and sanctions deal will be formally signed or publicly announced as finalized within 14 days, with Iran committing to halt uranium enrichment above 5 percent.
  A US-Iran framework was signed mid-June, but Iran never committed to halting enrichment above 5%; later coverage shows Iran refused binding enrichment caps. Compound condition unmet. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #5 Canada's social media ban bill for under-16s will pass a first reading in Parliament within 20 days but face a court injunction challenge from a civil liberties group within that same window.
  No evidence the Canada under-16 social media bill passed first reading or drew a civil-liberties injunction by the 2026-06-30 deadline. (graded 2026-06-30)
• ✅ #412 Andy Burnham will formally declare his candidacy for the Labour Party leadership within 7 days of Starmer's resignation, making him the first major declared candidate in the race.
  Burnham declared his Labour leadership candidacy as the lead/sole contender after Starmer's resignation; today's BBC coverage has him actively campaigning ('makes his dash for the door'). (graded 2026-06-30)
• ❌ #156 Brent crude oil will fall below $65 per barrel within 10 days as the US-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening remove the geopolitical risk premium that had sustained prices above that level.
  Brent crude fell sharply following the June 14, 2026 US-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening roadmap, dropping from highs above $100/bbl to a low of approximately $76.16/bbl by June 24, 2026. While this represented a decline of roughly $25–30/barrel, it remained well above the $65/barrel threshold. The lowest recorded price in the 10-day window was ~$76.16/bbl
  about $11 above the required level. (graded 2026-06-24)
• ❌ #2 India will formally recall or downgrade diplomatic relations with the United States following the US strike on the Settebello that killed Indian seafarers, issuing at least a formal diplomatic protest stronger than summoning the envoy.
  India's response to the US strike on the Settebello that killed three Indian seafarers was limited to summoning the US Chargé d'Affaires Jason Meeks twice (June 10 and June 12) and lodging strong protests. No formal recall of the Indian ambassador, expulsion of diplomats, or downgrade of diplomatic relations occurred before the June 24 deadline. India–US relations remained engaged, with US Trade Representative Greer scheduled to visit India on June 23–24 for trade agreement discussions. (graded 2026-06-24)
• ❌ #152 The WHO will send an emergency response team and formally escalate the DRC Ebola outbreak to a Grade 3 emergency within 10 days, the highest internal WHO emergency classification, before any PHEIC declaration.
  The PHEIC was already declared on May 17, 2026
  nearly a month before the prediction window of June 13–23, 2026. The Grade 3 classification was not declared separately before the PHEIC; it was noted simultaneously with the PHEIC declaration. No Grade 3 escalation occurred as a distinct prior step within the resolution window. (graded 2026-06-23)
• ✅ #243 Trump-endorsed Rep. Mike Collins wins the Georgia Republican Senate runoff against Derek Dooley, securing the GOP nomination.
  Trump-endorsed Rep. Mike Collins defeated former football coach Derek Dooley in the Georgia Republican Senate runoff on June 16, 2026, with Collins leading 55% to 45% when the AP called the race. Collins advances to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in the general election. Multiple major outlets including ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, Fox News, Axios, and Washington Examiner confirmed the result. (graded 2026-06-23)
• ❌ #198 The US Air Force will ground all B-52 Stratofortress aircraft for a safety stand-down of at least 48 hours within 7 days of the Edwards crash, pending preliminary investigation findings.
  Following the B-52 crash near Edwards AFB on June 15, 2026, flight operations were suspended only at Edwards AFB (approximately one day), not across the entire B-52 fleet. While strategic safety audits were launched at multiple bases, there was no formal fleet-wide grounding or 48-hour stand-down of all B-52 operations. The grounding explicitly did not extend to other bases or airports. (graded 2026-06-22)
• ❌ #50 At least two additional UK cabinet ministers will resign within 10 days, citing the same defence funding dispute or broader dissatisfaction with Starmer's fiscal priorities.
  The prediction required at least two additional cabinet ministers resigning within 10 days of June 11 over the defence funding dispute or Starmer's fiscal priorities. While Defence Secretary John Healey (cabinet) and junior minister Al Carns resigned on June 11, no further cabinet-level resignations occurred in the June 11–21 window. The previous cabinet resignation (Wes Streeting) happened in May, before the prediction date. Only one ministerial aide (Pamela Nash) resigned in addition to Healey and Carns, falling short of the threshold of two additional cabinet ministers. (graded 2026-06-21)
• ❌ #153 The US-Iran memorandum of understanding will be formally signed in Geneva on or before June 21, 2025, with both delegations present and the Strait of Hormuz reopening to commercial traffic confirmed within 48 hours of signing.
  The claim required the MOU to be formally signed in Geneva, but the signing was electronic with no in-person ceremony in Geneva. Trump signed the agreement at the Palace of Versailles following the G7 summit. Additionally, while the MOU was signed on June 17, 2026 (within the date window), the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to commercial shipping as of June 21 with 0 ships transiting versus the normal ~94/day, meaning the 'confirmed reopening within 48 hours' condition was not met. (graded 2026-06-21)
• ❌ #147 The US-Iran deal announced by Trump will fail to be formally signed within 7 days, with Iran publicly rejecting or indefinitely postponing the agreement due to unresolved terms on uranium enrichment or sanctions relief.
  The claim did not come true. Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on June 18, 2026, well within the 7-day window specified in the claim. Both sides formally signed the MOU laying out terms for ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. While subsequent technical talks in Switzerland were postponed, Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed preparations for a new meeting, indicating the MOU itself was not rejected or indefinitely postponed. (graded 2026-06-20)
• ✅ #1 Iran will formally reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic within 10 days as part of a ceasefire or diplomatic agreement, reversing its announced closure.
  The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding was signed on June 17, 2026, within the 10-day window, formally reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic as part of a diplomatic agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Commercial shipping transits were confirmed on June 18, with AFP reporting 25 commercial vessels transited the strait that day
  the highest daily total since April 18
  according to shipping data firm AXSMarine. The MoU calls for full reopening without tolls for at least 60 days. (graded 2026-06-20)
• ❌ #155 Keir Starmer's under-16 social media ban announcement will include a specific compliance deadline for platforms of no more than 12 months, with financial penalties exceeding 10 percent of global revenue for non-compliance, making it the strictest such regime globally.
  The resolution deadline (June 19, 2026) has passed. The compound claim required all three conditions: a compliance deadline of no more than 12 months, financial penalties exceeding 10% of global revenue, and the strictest such regime globally. The critical failure is the penalty threshold: Ofcom can fine platforms up to 10% of global annual revenue under the Online Safety Act framework
  not exceeding 10% as the claim requires. Additionally, regulations were expected to come into force in Spring 2027, and while the UK government claimed to 'go further than any country in the world,' the penalty structure does not exceed 10%. Since the deadline has passed and the compound claim was not fully satisfied, the outcome is no. (graded 2026-06-20)
• ❌ #154 Russia's strike on the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra will trigger a formal emergency session of the UN Security Council within 5 days, with the US abstaining rather than vetoing a resolution condemning the attack on the religious site.
  The resolution deadline of June 19, 2026 passed without either required condition being met. Ukraine requested an urgent UNSC meeting after Russia struck the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra on June 14–15, but the session was scheduled for June 22
  three days after the deadline. Furthermore, the June 22 session was an open briefing, not a vote on a draft resolution condemning the attack. No resolution with a US abstention (rather than a veto) was ever put forward or passed. (graded 2026-06-20)
• ✅ #197 The DOJ investigation into Gavin Newsom will result in a formal grand jury subpoena or document demand being publicly reported within 21 days, escalating beyond the initial probe announcement into active legal process.
  Multiple major news outlets (CNN, NPR, ABC News, CalMatters) publicly reported on June 15-16, 2026 that the DOJ investigation into the Newsoms involved grand jury subpoenas issued to financial institutions. CNN explicitly stated the probe 'has involved...grand jury subpoenas.' Newsom himself publicly accused the DOJ of 'abusing the grand jury process.' While neither Newsom nor his wife personally received subpoenas, third-party subpoenas (e.g., to banks) were reported as part of the active investigation, satisfying the claim's requirement for a publicly reported formal grand jury subpoena or document demand. (graded 2026-06-19)
• ✅ #157 The G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains will produce a joint communique that explicitly references the US-Iran ceasefire and calls for a follow-on multilateral process on Iran's nuclear program, marking the first G7 consensus statement on Iran in over three years.
  The G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains (June 15–17, 2026) concluded with a 'leaders' statement on geopolitical issues' published June 17, 2026, which welcomed the US-Iran deal, called it 'an historic opportunity to prevent Iran from acquiring any nuclear weapon,' and called for 'a robust and comprehensive diplomatic follow-on agreement' involving the IAEA and regional/international partners. All G7 members, including the US, signed on. While no traditional 'joint communiqué' was issued (for the second consecutive year under Trump), the statement fulfills the substance of the claim: a G7 consensus document referencing the Iran ceasefire and calling for a multilateral follow-on nuclear process. The document is formally a 'leaders' statement' rather than a 'joint communiqué,' introducing minor technical ambiguity, but the core claim is confirmed. (graded 2026-06-19)
• ❌ #53 Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will dismiss or formally suspend media adviser Jonatan Urich within 7 days following the espionage charges, citing the need to preserve intelligence integrity.
  The deadline of June 18 passed without Netanyahu dismissing or formally suspending Jonatan Urich following his June 11 espionage indictment. Urich continues to frequent the Prime Minister's Office, the Tel Aviv District Court rejected prosecutors' request to immediately bar him, and Netanyahu showed no indication of distancing himself from Urich. Opposition figures explicitly criticized Netanyahu's failure to suspend Urich, confirming the action did not occur. (graded 2026-06-19)
• ✅ #150 At least five US states will be publicly named as participants in the OpenAI attorney general investigation within 14 days, as additional states formally join the coalition and the scope of the probe is disclosed in official filings.
  On June 12, 2026, a coalition of 42 state attorneys general launched a formal investigation into OpenAI, with New York AG Letitia James serving a subpoena on behalf of the group. Multiple states were publicly named including New York, Colorado, Florida, and Pennsylvania, far exceeding the threshold of five named states within the 14-day window. (graded 2026-06-18)
• ✅ #103 The World Health Organization will declare the current Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern within 21 days as the outbreak expands and drug trials signal insufficient containment.
  The WHO declared the Ebola outbreak in the DRC and Uganda a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on May 17, 2026, well before the July 3 deadline. The outbreak is caused by Bundibugyo virus (BDBV). The declaration occurred even before the prediction was formally made on June 12, 2026. (graded 2026-06-18)
• ✅ #101 The Trump administration will appeal the Kennedy Center naming order to a circuit court within 7 days rather than comply with the removal deadline, escalating the legal conflict.
  The Trump administration filed a notice of appeal to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals challenging the ruling requiring removal of Trump's name from the Kennedy Center. The appeal was filed on June 11-12, 2026, less than a day before the removal deadline, rather than complying with the court order. A three-judge panel of the DC Circuit ultimately denied the Kennedy Center's request to retain Trump's name past the midnight deadline. (graded 2026-06-18)
• ✅ #98 Pakistan will formally co-sign or publicly witness the US-Iran memorandum of understanding within 10 days, cementing its mediator role in an official capacity.
  Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding on June 18, 2026, in Pakistan's role as mediator between the US and Iran, within the 10-day window from the prediction date of June 12, 2026 and before the June 22 deadline. (graded 2026-06-18)
• ✅ #3 The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged at its next scheduled meeting rather than cutting rates, citing the 4.2 percent inflation figure as justification for a pause.
  The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% at its June 16–17, 2026 meeting, explicitly citing elevated inflation (described as the highest in three years) as justification. The FOMC statement noted 'Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors.' This was also the first decision under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. (graded 2026-06-18)
• ✅ #48 SpaceX shares will close above $160 on their first day of trading, representing more than an 18 percent gain over the $135 IPO price.
  SpaceX stock (SPCX) closed at $160.95 on its first day of trading, a ~19% gain over the $135 IPO price, surpassing the threshold of closing above $160 (more than 18% gain). (graded 2026-06-15)